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The Transmission Mechanism in Armenia: New Evidence from a Regime Switching VAR Analysis

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  • International Monetary Fund

Abstract

The introduction of inflation targeting in 2006, together with important economic developments such as dedollarization, marked the beginning of a new macroeconomic framework in Armenia, which is likely to have changed the effectiveness of monetary policy. This paper is the first attempt to analyze whether the transmission mechanism in Armenia has been subject to a structural break by employing a Markov-Switching VAR framework. Results support the existence of such a structural break around the time inflation targeting was introduced and reduced levels of dollarization were observed. Results from introducing a threshold variable into this framework furthermore show that reduced levels of dollarization are an important determinant of the effectiveness of monetary policy.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 10/270.

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Date of creation: 01 Nov 2010
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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:10/270

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Related research

Keywords: Inflation targeting; Dollarization; Economic models; Monetary transmission mechanism;

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References

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  1. Rania Al Mashat & Andreas Billmeier, 2008. "The Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Egypt," Working Papers 411, Economic Research Forum, revised Jun 2008.
  2. Ippei Fujiwara, 2004. "Evaluating Monetary Policy When Nominal Interest Rates Are Almost Zero," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 620, Econometric Society.
  3. Luis Carranza & José E. Galdón-Sánchez & Javier Gómez Biscarri, 2004. "Exchange Rate and Inflation Dynamics in Dollarized Economies," Faculty Working Papers 10/04, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
  4. Ehrmann, Michael & Ellison, Martin & Valla, Natacha, 2003. "Regime-dependent impulse response functions in a Markov-switching vector autoregression model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 78(3), pages 295-299, March.
  5. International Monetary Fund, 2007. "Modalities of Moving to Inflation Targeting in Armenia and Georgia," IMF Working Papers 07/133, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Hamilton, James D., 1990. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 39-70.
  7. Adrián Armas & Francisco Grippa, 2005. "Targeting Inflation in a Dollarized Economy: The Peruvian Experience," Research Department Publications 4423, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
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Cited by:
  1. Prachi Mishra & Peter Montiel, 2012. "How Effective Is Monetary Transmission in Low-Income Countries? A Survey of the Empirical Evidence," IMF Working Papers 12/143, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Jamilov, Rustam, 2012. "Channels of Monetary Transmission in the CIS," MPRA Paper 39568, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Mishra, Prachi & Montiel, Peter J & Spilimbergo, Antonio, 2011. "How Effective Is Monetary Transmission in Developing Countries? A Survey of the Empirical Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 8577, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Poghosyan, K. & Boldea, O., 2011. "Structural versus Matching Estimation: Transmission Mechanisms in Armenia," Discussion Paper 2011-104, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.

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