Growth and Crisis, Unavoidable Connection?
AbstractIn emerging economies periods of rapid growth and large capital inflows can be followed by sudden stops and financial crises. I show that, in the presence of financial markets imperfections, a simple modification of a neoclassical growth model can account for these facts. I study a growth model for a small open economy where decreasing marginal returns to capital appear only after the country has reached a threshold level of development, which is uncertain. Limited enforceability of contracts allows default on international debt. International investors optimally choose to suddenly restrict lending when the appearance of decreasing marginal returns slows down growth. The economy defaults and enters a financial crisis.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 10/267.
Date of creation: 01 Nov 2010
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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-01-03 (All new papers)
- NEP-DGE-2011-01-03 (Dynamic General Equilibrium)
- NEP-FDG-2011-01-03 (Financial Development & Growth)
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- Jo\~ao P. da Cruz & Pedro G. Lind, 2011. "The dynamics of financial stability in complex networks," Papers 1103.0717, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2013.
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