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Emerging Asia’s Impacton Australian Growth

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  • Ben Hunt
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    Abstract

    Over the last decade, GDP growth in emerging Asia was roughly twice as fast as average world growth. The IMF’s Global Economy Model (GEM) is used to estimate the impact that emerging Asia’s growth differential has had on Australia. The simulation analysis, which replicates some key features from the last decade, suggests that roughly 25 percent of Australia''s growth over the last decade has been from emerging Asia’s growth differential over that period. Looking ahead, the analysis suggests that should emerging Asia continue to grow in a similar fashion, Australia’s growth dividend could almost double. On the other hand, if growth in emerging Asia remained strong, but became more balanced across the tradable and nontradable goods sectors then Australia’s growth dividend would be slightly lower than the estimate for the last decade.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 10/262.

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    Length: 25
    Date of creation: 01 Nov 2010
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:10/262

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    Related research

    Keywords: Terms of trade; Capital; Economic growth; Economic models; Emerging markets; Labor productivity; Production growth; Real effective exchange rates; Trade integration; exchange rates; exchange rate; real exchange rates; tradable goods; effective exchange rate; real effective exchange rate; nontradable goods; factor accumulation; commodity prices; real exchange rate; elasticity of substitution; domestic firms; undervalued exchange rates; international trade; constant elasticity of substitution; dynamic adjustment; exchange rate adjustment; effective exchange rates; world growth; world trade; current accounts; world economy; trade data; nominal exchange rate; equilibrium exchange rate; political economy; trading partners; export prices; bilateral exchange rates; investment goods; world market; trade deficit; intermediate inputs; import prices; nominal interest rate; exchange rate needs; export sector; exchange rate appreciation; output growth; open economies; export volumes;

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