Unemployment and Productivity in the Long Run: the Role of Macroeconomic Volatility
AbstractWe propose a theory of low-frequency movements in unemployment based on asymmetric real wage rigidities. The theory generates two main predictions: long-run unemployment increases with (i) a fall in long-run productivity growth and (ii) a rise in the variance of productivity growth. Evidence based on U.S. time series and on an international panel strongly supports these predictions. The empirical specifications featuring the variance of productivity growth can account for two U.S. episodes which a linear model based only on long-run productivity growth cannot fully explain. These are the decline in long-run unemployment over the 1980s and its rise during the late 2000s.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 10/259.
Date of creation: 01 Nov 2010
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA
Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
More information through EDIRC
Other versions of this item:
- Benigno Pierpaolo & Surico Paolo & Ricci Luca Antonio, 2011. "Unemployment and productivity in the long run: The role of macroeconomic volatility," wp.comunite 0085, Department of Communication, University of Teramo.
- Benigno, Pierpaolo & Ricci, Luca Antonio & Surico, Paolo, 2010. "Unemployment and Productivity in the Long Run: the Role of Macroeconomic Volatility," CEPR Discussion Papers 8014, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Pierpaolo Benigno & Luca Antonio Ricci & Paolo Surico, 2010. "Unemployment and Productivity in the Long Run: The Role of Macroeconomic Volatility," NBER Working Papers 16374, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian
- E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-12-04 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2010-12-04 (Central Banking)
- NEP-FDG-2010-12-04 (Financial Development & Growth)
- NEP-MAC-2010-12-04 (Macroeconomics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Thomas J. Sargent & Paolo Surico, 2011. "Two Illustrations of the Quantity Theory of Money: Breakdowns and Revivals," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(1), pages 109-28, February.
- Pierpaolo Benigno & Luca Antonio Ricci, 2011.
"The Inflation-Output Trade-Off with Downward Wage Rigidities,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 101(4), pages 1436-66, June.
- Pierpaolo Benigno & Luca Antonio Ricci, 2010. "The Inflation-Output Trade-off with Downward Wage Rigidities," NBER Working Papers 15762, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Pierpaolo Benigno & Luca Antonio Ricci, 2010. "The Inflation-Output Trade-off with Downward Wage Rigidities," EIEF Working Papers Series 1020, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF), revised Apr 2010.
- Christopher A. Pissarides, 2000. "Equilibrium Unemployment Theory, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262161877, January.
- Du Caju, Philip & Fuss, Catherine & Wintr, Ladislav, 2009.
"Understanding sectoral differences in downward real wage rigidity: workforce composition, institutions, technology and competition,"
Working Paper Series
1006, European Central Bank.
- Philip Du Caju & Catherine Fuss & Ladislav Wintr, 2009. "Understanding sectoral differences in downward real wage rigidity : workforce composition, institutions, technology and competition," Working Paper Research 156, National Bank of Belgium.
- Fagan, Gabriel & Messina, Julián, 2009. "Downward wage rigidity and optimal steady-state inflation," Working Paper Series 1048, European Central Bank.
- Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Ernesto Talvi, 2006. "Sudden Stops and Phoenix Miracles in Emerging Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 405-410, May.
- Holden, Steinar & Wulfsberg, Fredrik, 2009. "How strong is the macroeconomic case for downward real wage rigidity?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 605-615, May.
- Aurelijus Dabušinskas & Dmitry Kulikov & Martti Randveer, 2013. "The impact of volatility on economic growth," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2012-7, Bank of Estonia, revised 04 Feb 2013.
- Philippe Mueller & Andrea Vedolin & Hao Zhou, 2011. "Short Run Bond Risk Premia," FMG Discussion Papers dp686, Financial Markets Group.
- Annicchiarico Barbara & Pelloni Alessandra, 2011.
"Productivity growth and volatility: How important are wage and price rigidities?,"
0089, Department of Communication, University of Teramo.
- Barbara Annicchiarico & Alessandra Pelloni, 2014. "Productivity growth and volatility: how important are wage and price rigidities?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 66(1), pages 306-324, January.
- Barbara Annicchiarico & Alessandra Pelloni, 2013. "Productivity Growth and Volatility: How Important Are Wage and Price Rigidities?," Working Paper Series 02_13, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
- Barbara Annicchiarico & Alessandra Pelloni, 2011. "Productivity Growth and Volatility: How Important are Wage and Price Rigidities?," CEIS Research Paper 211, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 26 Sep 2011.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow) or (Hassan Zaidi).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.