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After the Crisis

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Author Info

  • Silvia Sgherri
  • Hanan Morsy

Abstract

Italy’s deep-rooted structural problems resulted in an unsatisfactory productivity performance and a dismal growth over the last 15 years. The global financial crisis has exacerbated these long-standing weaknesses, taking a heavy toll on Italy’s economy. With output back to its end-2001 level, Italy’s output losses associated with the crisis have been, thus far, about 132 billion of 2000 euro (around 10 percent of precrisis 1998 - 2004 real GDP). About three quarters of these losses are estimated to be due to a shortfall in potential output. Potential output is not expected to rebound to its precrisis trend over the medium term, even though growth is projected to do so within the next two years. In the short-run, the decline in output is mainly accounted for by a collapse in productivity; in the medium term, employment and capital are also likely to be affected, with implications for the longer-term growth and fiscal outlook.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 10/244.

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Length: 32
Date of creation: 01 Nov 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:10/244

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Related research

Keywords: Global Financial Crisis 2008-2009; Italy; Economic growth; Labor productivity; Production growth; Financial crisis; Productivity; unemployment; total factor productivity; real gdp; nairu; unemployment rate; gdp growth; business cycle; growth rate; labor participation; equilibrium unemployment; growth rates; equilibrium unemployment rate; private consumption; labor demand; rate of unemployment; gdp per capita; structural unemployment; natural rate of unemployment; per capita income; labor force participation; growth accounting; fixed capital formation; labor participation rate; gross domestic product; labor force working; business cycle fluctuations; business cycle component; job training; per capita incomes; rising unemployment;

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References

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  1. Ian Dew-Becker & Robert J. Gordon, 2008. "The Role of Labor Market Changes in the Slowdown of European Productivity Growth," NBER Working Papers 13840, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. Romain Bouis & Ane Kathrine Christensen & Boris Cournède, 2013. "Deleveraging: Challenges, Progress and Policies," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1077, OECD Publishing.
  2. Annamaria Nifo & Domenico Scalera, 2011. "Structural Changes in Italian Industry: The Impact of Crisis. A Comment on the Book Edited by Laura Rondi and Francesco Silva," QA - Rivista dell'Associazione Rossi-Doria, Associazione Rossi Doria, issue 2, June.

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