Nonperforming Loans in the GCC Banking System and their Macroeconomic Effects
AbstractAccording to a dynamic panel estimated over 1995 - 2008 on around 80 banks in the GCC region, the NPL ratio worsens as economic growth becomes lower and interest rates and risk aversion increase. Our model implies that the cumulative effect of macroeconomic shocks over a three year horizon is indeed large. Firm-specific factors related to risk-taking and efficiency are also related to future NPLs. The paper finally investigates the feedback effect of increasing NPLs on growth using a VAR model. According to the panel VAR, there could be a strong, albeit short-lived feedback effect from losses in banks’ balance sheets on economic activity, with a semi-elasticity of around 0.4.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 10/224.
Date of creation: 01 Oct 2010
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA
Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
More information through EDIRC
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-10-16 (All new papers)
- NEP-ARA-2010-10-16 (MENA - Middle East & North Africa)
- NEP-BAN-2010-10-16 (Banking)
- NEP-BEC-2010-10-16 (Business Economics)
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Alberto Ortiz Bolaños & Last: Ortiz Bolaños, 2012.
"Credit Market Shocks, Monetary Policy, and Economic Fluctuations,"
Documentos de InvestigaciÃ³n - Research Papers
6, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA.
- Alberto Ortiz Bolaños, 2013. "Credit Market Shocks, Monetary Policy, and Economic Fluctuations," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(2), pages 317-369, July-Dece.
- Bruna Škarica, 2013. "Determinants of Non-Performing Loans in Central and Eastern European Countries," EFZG Working Papers Series 1307, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb.
- Reinout De Bock & Alexander Demyanets, 2012. "Bank Asset Quality in Emerging Markets: Determinants and Spillovers," IMF Working Papers 12/71, International Monetary Fund.
- Nir Klein, 2013. "Non-Performing Loans in CESEE: Determinants and Impact on Macroeconomic Performance," IMF Working Papers 13/72, International Monetary Fund.
- Mikhail Mamonov, 2013. "Bad management, skimping, or both? The relationship between cost efficiency and loan quality in Russian banks," HSE Working papers WP BRP 19/FE/2013, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
- Tatum Blaise Pua Tan, 2012. "Determinants of Credit Growth and Interest Margins in the Philippines and Asia," IMF Working Papers 12/123, International Monetary Fund.
- Andrés González & Sergio Ocampo & Julian Pérez Amaya & Diego Rodríguez, 2012.
"Output gap and Neutral interest measures for Colombia,"
Borradores de Economia
726, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
- Andrés González & Segio Ocampo & Julián Pérez & Diego Rodríguez, 2013. "Output Gap and Neutral Interest Measures of Colombia," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(2), pages 231-286, July-Dece.
- Andrés González & Sergio Ocampo & Julián Pérez & Diego Rodríguez, 2012. "Output gap and Neutral interest measures for Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 009870, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
- Josué Fernando Cortés Espada, 2013. "Estimating the Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Prices in Mexico," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(2), pages 287-316, July-Dece.
- Love, Inessa & Turk Ariss, Rima, 2014.
"Macro-financial linkages in Egypt: A panel analysis of economic shocks and loan portfolio quality,"
Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money,
Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 158-181.
- Inessa Love & Rima Turk Ariss, 2013. "Macro-Financial Linkages in Egypt: A Panel Analysis of Economic Shocks and Loan Portfolio Quality," Working Papers 201310, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
- Alwyn Jordan & Carisma Tucker, 2013. "Assessing the Impact of Nonperforming Loans on Economic Growth in The Bahamas," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(2), pages 371-400, July-Dece.
- Reininger, Thomas & Jakubík, Petr, 2013. "Determinants of Nonperforming Loans in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 3.
- Anton Belgrave & Kester Guy & Mahalia Jackman, 2012. "Industry Specific Shocks and Non-Performing Loans in Barbados," The Review of Finance and Banking, Academia de Studii Economice din Bucuresti, Romania / Facultatea de Finante, Asigurari, Banci si Burse de Valori / Catedra de Finante, vol. 4(2), pages 123-133, December.
- Ahlem Selma Messai & Fathi Jouini, 2013. "Micro and Macro Determinants of Non-performing Loan," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 3(4), pages 852 - 860.
- Beck, Roland & Jakubik, Petr & Piloiu, Anamaria, 2013. "Non-performing loans: what matters in addition to the economic cycle?," Working Paper Series 1515, European Central Bank.
- Solntsev, O. & Mamonov, M. & Pestova, A. & Magomedova, Z., 2011. "Experience in Developing Early Warning System for Financial Crises and the Forecast of Russian Banking Sector Dynamic in 2012," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, issue 12, pages 41-76.
- Inessa Love & Rima Turk Ariss, 2013. "Macro-Financial Linkages in Egypt: A Panel Analysis of Economic Shocks and Loan Portfolio Quality," IMF Working Papers 13/271, International Monetary Fund.
- Mwanza Nkusu, 2011. "Nonperforming Loans and Macrofinancial Vulnerabilities in Advanced Economies," IMF Working Papers 11/161, International Monetary Fund.
- Rodolfo Maino & Kalin Tintchev, 2012. "From Stress to CoStress: Stress Testing Interconnected Banking Systems," IMF Working Papers 12/53, International Monetary Fund.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow) or (Hassan Zaidi).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.