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Nonperforming Loans in the GCC Banking System and their Macroeconomic Effects

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Author Info

  • Raphael A. Espinoza
  • Ananthakrishnan Prasad

Abstract

According to a dynamic panel estimated over 1995 - 2008 on around 80 banks in the GCC region, the NPL ratio worsens as economic growth becomes lower and interest rates and risk aversion increase. Our model implies that the cumulative effect of macroeconomic shocks over a three year horizon is indeed large. Firm-specific factors related to risk-taking and efficiency are also related to future NPLs. The paper finally investigates the feedback effect of increasing NPLs on growth using a VAR model. According to the panel VAR, there could be a strong, albeit short-lived feedback effect from losses in banks’ balance sheets on economic activity, with a semi-elasticity of around 0.4.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 10/224.

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Length: 24
Date of creation: 01 Oct 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:10/224

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Keywords: Bank accounting; Banking systems; Banks; Credit risk; Economic models; banking; banking system; national bank; bond; financial system; banks ? balance sheets; bank for international settlements; deposit insurance; banking sector; banking crises; var model; moral hazard; financial stability; systemic banking crises; corporate bond; financial services; banks ? loan; bank size; bank risk; industrial bank; investment bank; bank loan; bank capital; stock returns; financial markets; financial institutions; cash flow; financial systems; reserve adequacy; return on equity; capital adequacy; bond prices; financial market; bank portfolios; net interest margin; stock market; bank lending; banks ? balance sheet; bank risk taking; public joint stock company; bankers; joint stock company; financial sector; capital adequacy ratio; bank crisis; bond yields; stock company; stock markets; banking distress; free cash flow; bank policy; joint stock; equity share;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Alberto Ortiz Bolaños & Last: Ortiz Bolaños, 2012. "Credit Market Shocks, Monetary Policy, and Economic Fluctuations," Documentos de Investigación - Research Papers 6, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA.
  2. Alwyn Jordan & Carisma Tucker, 2013. "Assessing the Impact of Nonperforming Loans on Economic Growth in The Bahamas," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(2), pages 371-400, July-Dece.
  3. Inessa Love & Rima Turk Ariss, 2013. "Macro-Financial Linkages in Egypt: A Panel Analysis of Economic Shocks and Loan Portfolio Quality," IMF Working Papers 13/271, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Eftychia Nikolaidou & Sofoklis Vogiazas, 2014. "Credit Risk Determinants for the Bulgarian Banking System," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 87-102, February.
  5. Josué Fernando Cortés Espada, 2013. "Estimating the Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Prices in Mexico," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(2), pages 287-316, July-Dece.
  6. Rodolfo Maino & Kalin Tintchev, 2012. "From Stress to Costress," IMF Working Papers 12/53, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Reinout De Bock & Alexander Demyanets, 2012. "Bank Asset Quality in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 12/71, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Ahlem Selma Messai & Fathi Jouini, 2013. "Micro and Macro Determinants of Non-performing Loan," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 3(4), pages 852 - 860.
  9. Andrés González & Segio Ocampo & Julián Pérez & Diego Rodríguez, 2013. "Output Gap and Neutral Interest Measures of Colombia," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(2), pages 231-286, July-Dece.
  10. Bruna Škarica, 2013. "Determinants of Non-Performing Loans in Central and Eastern European Countries," EFZG Working Papers Series 1307, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb.
  11. Mikhail Mamonov, 2013. "Bad management, skimping, or both? The relationship between cost efficiency and loan quality in Russian banks," HSE Working papers WP BRP 19/FE/2013, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
  12. Anton Belgrave & Kester Guy & Mahalia Jackman, 2012. "Industry Specific Shocks and Non-Performing Loans in Barbados," The Review of Finance and Banking, Academia de Studii Economice din Bucuresti, Romania / Facultatea de Finante, Asigurari, Banci si Burse de Valori / Catedra de Finante, vol. 4(2), pages 123-133, December.
  13. Solntsev, O. & Mamonov, M. & Pestova, A. & Magomedova, Z., 2011. "Experience in Developing Early Warning System for Financial Crises and the Forecast of Russian Banking Sector Dynamic in 2012," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, issue 12, pages 41-76.
  14. Vasiliki Makri & Athanasios Tsagkanos & Athanasios Bellas, 2014. "Determinants of Non-Performing Loans: The Case of Eurozone," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 61(2), pages 193-206, March.
  15. Tatum Blaise Pua Tan, 2012. "Determinants of Credit Growth and Interest Margins in the Philippines and Asia," IMF Working Papers 12/123, International Monetary Fund.
  16. Petr Jakubík & Thomas Reininger, 2013. "Determinants of Nonperforming Loans in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 3, pages 48-66.
  17. Pestova Anna & Mamonov Mikhail, 2013. "Macroeconomic and bank?specific determinants of credit risk: evidence from Russia," EERC Working Paper Series 13/10e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
  18. Nir Klein, 2013. "Non-Performing Loans in CESEE," IMF Working Papers 13/72, International Monetary Fund.
  19. Beck, Roland & Jakubik, Petr & Piloiu, Anamaria, 2013. "Non-performing loans: what matters in addition to the economic cycle?," Working Paper Series 1515, European Central Bank.
  20. Mwanza Nkusu, 2011. "Nonperforming Loans and Macrofinancial Vulnerabilities in Advanced Economies," IMF Working Papers 11/161, International Monetary Fund.

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