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Price Dynamics in China

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  • International Monetary Fund
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    Abstract

    Chinese inflation, particularly non-food inflation, has been surprisingly modest in recent years. We find that supply factors, including those captured through upstream foreign commodity and producer prices, have been important drivers of non-food inflation, as has foreign demand for Chinese goods. Domestic demand and monetary conditions seem less important, possibly reflecting a large domestic output gap generated by many years of high investment. Inflation varies systemically within China, with richer (and urban) provinces having lower, more stable, inflation, but this urban inflation also influence that in lower-income provinces. Higher Mainland food inflation also raises inflation in non-Mainland China.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 10/221.

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    Length: 26
    Date of creation: 01 Sep 2010
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:10/221

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    Related research

    Keywords: Economic models; Prices; inflation; monetary policy; money growth; price inflation; aggregate demand; monetary conditions; monetary growth; inflation dynamics; monetary fund; monetary economics; price level; inflationary shock; lower inflation; wage inflation; forecasting inflation; inflationary pressures; average inflation; inflationary expectations; central bank; inflation rising;

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    1. Mehrotra, Aaron & Koivu, Tuuli & Nuutilainen, Riikka, 2008. "McCallum rule and Chinese monetary policy," BOFIT Discussion Papers, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition 15/2008, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    2. Villani, Mattias, 2005. "Inference in Vector Autoregressive Models with an Informative Prior on the Steady State," Working Paper Series 181, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    3. Huang Yiping & Wang Xun & Hua Xiuping, 2010. "What Determine China’s Inflation?," Macroeconomics Working Papers 22770, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    4. Jinghai Zheng & Angang Hu & Arne Bigsten, 2009. "Potential output in a rapidly developing economy: the case of China and a comparison with the United States and the European Union," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 317-342.
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