The End of an Era? The Medium- and Long-term Effects of the Global Crisis on Growth in Low-Income Countries
AbstractThis paper investigates the medium- and long-term growth effects of the global financial crises on Low-Income Countries (LICs). Using several methodological approaches, including impulse response function analysis, growth spells techniques and panel regressions, we show that external demand (ED) shocks are not historically associated with sharp declines in output growth. Given existing evidence that LICs were primarily impacted by such a shock in the global financial crisis, our analysis provides some optimism on the chances that LICs will avoid a protracted period of slow growth. However, we also show that there seem to be persistent output losses associated with ED shocks in the medium-run. In terms of policy implications, our analysis provides evidence that countries with lower deficits, lower debt, more flexible exchange rate regimes, and a higher stock of international reserves are more likely to dampen the effects of an ED shock on growth.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 10/205.
Date of creation: 01 Sep 2010
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Other versions of this item:
- Berg, Andrew & Papageorgiou, Chris & Pattillo, Catherine & Spatafora, Nicola, 2011. "The end of an era? The medium- and long-term effects of the global crisis on growth in low-income countries," IAMO Forum 2011: Will the "BRICs Decade" Continue? â Prospects for Trade and Growth 25, Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Central and Eastern Europe (IAMO).
- O11 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
- O19 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations
- O23 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development
- O47 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Measurement of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-10-16 (All new papers)
- NEP-DEV-2010-10-16 (Development)
- NEP-FDG-2010-10-16 (Financial Development & Growth)
- NEP-IFN-2010-10-16 (International Finance)
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