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Estimates of the Output Gap in Armenia with Applications to Monetary and Fiscal Policy

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  • International Monetary Fund

Abstract

This paper employs several econometric techniques to estimate the Armenian output gap. The findings indicate that the output gap is significantly positive in 2007 and 2008 and decreased dramatically in 2009. The paper uses these results to estimate a New Keynesian Phillips curve for Armenia, suggesting a significant role of the output gap and inflation expectations in determining current inflation. Finally, the underlying fiscal stance over the period 2000-09 is assessed by estimating the cyclically-adjusted fiscal balance. Most of Armenia’s fiscal deficit is found to be structural. Fiscal policy, while providing counter-cyclical support in 2009, has been largely pro-cyclical in the past.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 10/197.

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Length: 46
Date of creation: 01 Aug 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:10/197

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Keywords: Economic growth; Economic models; Production; inflation; fiscal policy; fiscal stance; fiscal impulse; fiscal balance; monetary policy; fiscal rules; terms of trade; tax system; tax administration; inflation dynamics; fiscal deficit; monetary economics; fiscal stabilizers; fiscal discipline; public debt; revenue collection; budget balance; primary expenditure; fiscal position; budget balances; public finances; increase in inflation; fiscal indicators; budget deficit; fiscal policy formulation; fiscal variables; fiscal space; tax collection; tax burden; tax base; fiscal adjustment; tax rates; tax potential; expenditure ratios; inflation rates; low inflation; annual budget; tax bases; fiscal affairs department; fiscal response; tax revenues; fiscal affairs; real output; budget process; inflation equation; tax effort; cyclical fiscal policy; fiscal prudence; prudent fiscal policy; fiscal framework; fiscal component;

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References

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  1. Clark, Peter K., 1989. "Trend reversion in real output and unemployment," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 15-32, January.
  2. Paul van den Noord, 2000. "The Size and Role of Automatic Fiscal Stabilizers in the 1990s and Beyond," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 230, OECD Publishing.
  3. Andreas Billmeier, 2004. "Ghostbusting," IMF Working Papers 04/146, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Nienke Oomes & Oksana Dynnikova, 2006. "The Utilization-Adjusted Output Gap," IMF Working Papers 06/68, International Monetary Fund.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Julia Bersch & Tara M. Sinclair, 2011. "Mongolia," IMF Working Papers 11/79, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Poghosyan, K. & Boldea, O., 2011. "Structural versus Matching Estimation: Transmission Mechanisms in Armenia," Discussion Paper, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research 2011-104, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  3. Poghosyan, K., 2012. "Structural and reduced-form modeling and forecasting with application to Armenia," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-5590845, Tilburg University.
  4. Tara Sinclair & Julia Bersch, 2013. "Statistical Versus Economic Output Gap Measures: Evidence from Mongolia," Working Papers, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy 2013-7, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.

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