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The Cross-Country Incidence of the Global Crisis

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  • Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti
  • Philip R. Lane

Abstract

We examine whether the cross-country incidence and severity of the 2008-2009 global recession is systematically related to pre-crisis macroeconomic and financial factors. We find that the pre-crisis level of development, increases in the ratio of private credit to GDP, current account deficits, and openness to trade are helpful in understanding the intensity of the crisis. International risk sharing did little to shield domestic demand from the country-specific component of output declines, while those countries with large pre-crisis current account deficits saw domestic demand fall by much more than domestic output during the crisis.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 10/171.

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Length: 64
Date of creation: 01 Jul 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:10/171

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  1. Erik Berglof & Yevgeniya Korniyenko & Alexander Plekhanov & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2010. "Understanding the Crisis in Emerging Europe," Public Policy Review, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan, vol. 6(6), pages 985-1008, September.
  2. Beck, Thorsten & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Levine, Ross, 1999. "A new database on financial development and structure," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2146, The World Bank.
  3. Domenico Giannone & Michèle Lenza & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010. "Market Freedom and the Global Recession," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2010-020, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  4. Michael B Devereux & James Yetman, 2010. "Financial deleveraging and the international transmission of shocks," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The international financial crisis and policy challenges in Asia and the Pacific, volume 52, pages 274-298 Bank for International Settlements.
  5. Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2009. "Deciphering the Liquidity and Credit Crunch 2007-2008," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(1), pages 77-100, Winter.
  6. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. Gupta, Poonam & Mishra, Deepak & Sahay, Ratna, 2007. "Behavior of output during currency crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 428-450, July.
  8. Kose, M. Ayhan & Prasad, Eswar S. & Terrones, Marco E., 2009. "Does financial globalization promote risk sharing?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 258-270, July.
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