Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Does Procyclical Fiscal Policy Reinforce Incentives to Dollarize Sovereign Debt?

Contents:

Author Info

  • Anna Ilyina
  • Anastasia Guscina
  • Herman Kamil

Abstract

This paper explores the link between the cyclical patterns of macroeconomic and policy variables and the currency composition of domestic sovereign debt in emerging market countries. The empirical analysis is anchored in an equilibrium model, in which the dollarization of sovereign debt arises as a result of the optimal portfolio choices by risk-averse investors, and of a sovereign debt manager who takes fiscal policy as given. The model predicts that in countries where the exchange rate is countercyclical (i.e., the exchange rate depreciates during recessions), a more procyclical fiscal policy (i.e., expansionary in good times and contractionary in bad times) would lead, on average, to a more dollarized domestic sovereign debt. The empirical analysis using the Jeanne-Guscina EM Debt database (2006) on the currency structure of the central government debt in 22 emerging market countries over 1980 - 2005, supports these predictions.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=24058
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 10/168.

as in new window
Length: 41
Date of creation: 01 Jul 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:10/168

Contact details of provider:
Postal: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA
Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Email:
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Web: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm

Related research

Keywords: Fiscal policy; Emerging markets; Sovereign debt; Dollarization; Real effective exchange rates; Economic models; bonds; debt manager; hedging; currency debt; domestic debt; currency composition; foreign currency debt; nominal exchange rate; debt management; government debt; hedge; portfolio hedging; public debt; debt structures; currency crises; debt database; domestic bond; domestic bond market; financial assets; government bonds; debt service; domestic currency; debt market; public debt management; currency crisis; debt crisis; currency mismatches; debt managers; domestic debt market; financial markets; sovereign bond; currency of denomination; sovereign bonds; domestic debt markets; nominal interest rate; domestic financial markets; debt crises; external debt; debt stock; bond markets; denominated bonds; local currency bond markets; sovereign borrowers; national debt; flexible exchange rates; international financial markets; bond yields; debt burden; international lending; domestic public debt; debt servicing; debt maturity; financial economics; domestic investors; financial fragility; international financial statistics; moral hazard; domestic currencies; repayments; debt problems; international finance; debt servicing capacity; debt intolerance; dollar bonds;

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2011. "The Forgotten History of Domestic Debt," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(552), pages 319-350, 05.
  2. Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1997. "Financial fragility and the exchange rate regime," Working Paper 97-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  3. Ethan Ilzetzki & Carlos A. Vegh, 2008. "Procyclical Fiscal Policy in Developing Countries: Truth or Fiction?," NBER Working Papers 14191, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Christopher M Meissner & Michael D Bordo, 2006. "The Role of Foreign Currency Debt in Financial Crises: 1880-1913 vs. 1972-1997," WEF Working Papers 0001, ESRC World Economy and Finance Research Programme, Birkbeck, University of London.
  5. Eduardo Borensztein & Olivier Jeanne & Paolo Mauro & Jeromin Zettelmeyer & Marcos Chamon, 2005. "Sovereign Debt Structure for Crisis Prevention," IMF Occasional Papers 237, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart & Carlos A. VĂ©gh, 2005. "When It Rains, It Pours: Procyclical Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Policies," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004, Volume 19, pages 11-82 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. International Monetary Fund, 2011. "Government Debt Issuance in the Euro Area," IMF Working Papers 11/21, International Monetary Fund.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:10/168. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow) or (Hassan Zaidi).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.