Local Housing Market Cycle and Loss Given Default: Evidence from Sub-Prime Residential Mortgages
AbstractThis paper studies the impact of housing market cycles on loss given default (LGD). Previous studies have shown that the current loan-to-value ratio (CLTV) is the most important determinant of LGD. This paper establishes another linkage which is between the house price cycles before the time of mortgage origination and LGD. The empirical analysis is based on a large loan-level sub-prime residential mortgage loss dataset from 1998 to 2009. Results show that house price history has a long memory in explaining LGD. Its explanatory power far exceeds the original LTV and other loan characteristics. This paper offers a countercyclical view of LGD risk. The model can be combined with a default probability model to serve as a regulatory prudential tool. Such a tool provides a solution to the inherent procyclical bias in BASEL II capital requirements, and can contribute to the safety and soundness of banking institutions.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 10/167.
Date of creation: 01 Jul 2010
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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-07-31 (All new papers)
- NEP-RMG-2010-07-31 (Risk Management)
- NEP-URE-2010-07-31 (Urban & Real Estate Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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- Gordy, Michael B. & Howells, Bradley, 2006. "Procyclicality in Basel II: Can we treat the disease without killing the patient?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 395-417, July.
- Anthony Pennington-Cross, 2010.
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The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics,
Springer, vol. 40(2), pages 109-129, February.
- Anthony Pennington-Cross, 2006. "The duration of foreclosures in the subprime mortgage market: a competing risks model with mixing," Working Papers 2006-027, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
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- Been, Vicki & Weselcouch, Mary & Voicu, Ioan & Murff, Scott, 2013. "Determinants of the incidence of U.S. Mortgage Loan Modifications," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 3951-3973.
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