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Estimating Poland's Potential Output

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Author Info

  • Natan P. Epstein
  • Corrado Macchiarelli

Abstract

The paper develops a methodology based on the production-function approach to estimate potential output of the Polish economy. The paper concentrates on obtaining a robust estimate of the labor input by deriving Poland''s natural rate of unemployment. The estimated unemployment gap is found to track well pressures on resource constraints. Moreover, the overall results show that, prior to the recent global financial crisis, Poland''s output and employment were both growing above potential. The production function is also used to derive medium-term projections of the output gap. According to our methodology, in the aftermath of the global crisis, Poland is not expected to experience a sizable and persistent negative output gap.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 10/15.

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Length: 21
Date of creation: 01 Jan 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:10/15

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Related research

Keywords: Economic models; Employment; Production growth; Productivity; Unemployment; unemployment rate; rate of unemployment; equilibrium unemployment; natural rate of unemployment; equilibrium unemployment rate; employment level; structural unemployment; unemployed; unemployed population; employment estimates; unemployment figure; employment growth; full employment; non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment; number of employees;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Christian A Johnson, 2013. "Potential Output and Output Gap in Central America, Panama and Dominican Republic," IMF Working Papers 13/145, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Giang Huong Nguyen, 2014. "Estimating the Output Gap to Support the Management of Interest Rates in Vietnam," IHEID Working Papers 05-2014, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
  3. Ward-Warmedinger, Melanie E. & Macchiarelli, Corrado, 2013. "Transitions in Labour Market Status in the EU," IZA Discussion Papers 7814, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  4. Macchiarelli, Corrado, 2013. "Similar GDP-inflation cycles. An application to CEE countries and the euro area," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 124-144.
  5. Krasnopjorovs, Olegs, 2013. "Latvijas ekonomikas izaugsmi noteicošie faktori
    [Factors of Economic Growth in Latvia]
    ," MPRA Paper 47550, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Farzana Shaheen & Azad Haider & Sajid Amin Javed, 2011. "Estimating Pakistan’s Time Varying Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment: An Unobserved Component Approach," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 1(4), pages 172-179.
  7. Краснопёров, Олег, 2012. "Оценка Производственной Функции В Условиях Неопределённости Динамики Физического Капитала
    [Assessing the production
    ," MPRA Paper 47555, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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