Vietnam: Bayesian Estimation of Output Gap
AbstractThe paper constructs a new output gap measure for Vietnam by applying Bayesian methods to a two-equation AS-AD model, while treating the output gap as an unobservable series to be estimated together with other parameters. Model coefficients are easily interpretable, and the output gap series is consistent with a broader analysis of economic developments. Output gaps obtained from the HP detrending are subject to larger revisions than series obtained from a suitably adjusted model, and may be misleading compared to the model-based measure.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 10/149.
Date of creation: 01 Jun 2010
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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-07-31 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-2010-07-31 (Econometrics)
- NEP-TRA-2010-07-31 (Transition Economics)
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