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Demand Spillovers and the Collapse of Trade in the Global Recession

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Author Info

  • Kei-Mu Yi
  • Rudolfs Bems
  • Robert C. Johnson

Abstract

This paper uses a global input-output framework to quantify US and EU demand spillovers and the elasticity of world trade to GDP during the global recession of 2008-2009. We find that 20-30 percent of the decline in the US and EU demand was borne by foreign countries, with NAFTA, Emerging Europe, and Asia hit hardest. Allowing demand to change in all countries simultaneously, our framework delivers an elasticity of world trade to GDP of nearly 3. Thus, demand alone can account for 70 percent of the trade collapse. Large changes in demand for durables play an important role in driving these results.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 10/142.

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Length: 45
Date of creation: 01 Jun 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:10/142

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Related research

Keywords: Economic recession; Global Financial Crisis 2008-2009; Demand elasticity; Gross domestic product;

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References

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  1. Guillaume Daudin & Christine Rifflart & Danielle Schweisguth, 2009. "Who produces for whom in the world economy?," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2009-18, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  2. Amador, João & Cabral, Sónia, 2008. "Vertical specialization across the world: a relative measure," MPRA Paper 9618, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Iacovone, Leonardo & Zavacka, Veronika, 2009. "Banking crises and exports : lessons from the past," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5016, The World Bank.
  4. Andrei A. Levchenko & Logan Lewis & Linda L. Tesar, 2009. "The Collapse of International Trade During the 2008-2009 Crisis: In Search of the Smoking Gun," Working Papers 592, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
  5. Julian di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko, 2008. "Putting the Parts Together: Trade, Vertical Linkages, and Business Cycle Comovement," Working Papers 580, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
  6. Rudolfs Bems, 2008. "Aggregate Investment Expenditures on Tradable and Nontradable Goods," IMF Working Papers 08/45, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Jian Wang & Charles Engel, 2008. "International Trade in Durable Goods: Understanding Volatility, Cyclicality, and Elasticities," 2008 Meeting Papers 210, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  8. Olivier J. Blanchard & Mitali Das & Hamid Faruqee, 2010. "The Initial Impact of the Crisis on Emerging Market Countries," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 41(1 (Spring), pages 263-323.
  9. Virgiliu Midrigan & Joseph Kaboski & George Alessandria, 2010. "The Great Trade Collapse of 2008-09: An Inventory Adjustment?," 2010 Meeting Papers 107, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  10. Johnson, Robert C. & Noguera, Guillermo, 2012. "Accounting for intermediates: Production sharing and trade in value added," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 224-236.
  11. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Yvan Decreux & Lionel Fontagné & David Khoudour-Castéras, 2009. "Economic Crisis and Global Supply Chains," Working Papers 2009-15, CEPII research center.
  12. Calista Cheung & Stéphanie Guichard, 2009. "Understanding the World Trade Collapse," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 729, OECD Publishing.
  13. Jian Wang, 2010. "Durable goods and the collapse of global trade," Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, vol. 5(feb).
  14. Irwin, Douglas A., 2002. "Long-run trends in world trade and income," World Trade Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(01), pages 89-100, March.
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