What Explains the Rise in Food Price Volatility?
AbstractThe macroeconomic effects of large food price swings can be broad and far-reaching, including the balance of payments of importers and exporters, budgets, inflation, and poverty. For market participants and policymakers, managing low frequency volatilityâ€”i.e., the component of volatility that persists for longer than one harvest yearâ€”may be more challenging as uncertainty regarding its persistence is likely to be higher. This paper measures the low frequency volatility of food commodity spot prices using the spline- GARCH approach. It finds that low frequency volatility is positively correlated across different commodities, suggesting an important role for common factors. It also identifies a number of determinants of low frequency volatility, two of whichâ€”the variation in U.S. inflation and the U.S. dollar exchange rateâ€”explain a relatively large part of the rise in volatility since the mid-1990s.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 10/129.
Date of creation: 01 May 2010
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA
Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
More information through EDIRC
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- David S. Jacks, Kevin H. O'Rourke and Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2009.
"Commodity Price Volatility and World Market Integration since 1700,"
The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series
- David S. Jacks & Kevin H. O'Rourke & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2011. "Commodity Price Volatility and World Market Integration since 1700," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(3), pages 800-813, August.
- David S. Jacks & Kevin H. O'Rourke & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2009. "Commodity Price Volatility and World Market Integration since 1700," NBER Working Papers 14748, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jacks, David S. & O Rourke, Kevin H. & Williamson, Jeffrey G, 2009. "Commodity Price Volatility and World Market Integration since 1700," CEPR Discussion Papers 7190, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- David S. Jacks, Kevin H. O'Rourke and Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2009. "Commodity Price Volatility and World Market Integration since 1700," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp284, IIIS.
- Askari, Hossein & Cummings, John Thomas, 1977. "Estimating Agricultural Supply Response with the Nerlove Model: A Survey," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 18(2), pages 257-92, June.
- Allan D. Brunner, 1998.
"El Nino and world primary commodity prices: warm water or hot air?,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
608, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Allan D. Brunner, 2002. "El Niño and World Primary Commodity Prices: Warm Water or Hot Air?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(1), pages 176-183, February.
- Seale, James L., Jr. & Regmi, Anita & Bernstein, Jason, 2003. "International Evidence On Food Consumption Patterns," Technical Bulletins 33580, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
- Weaver, Robert D & Natcher, William C, 2000. "Commodity Price Volatility under New Market Orientations," MPRA Paper 9862, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Robles, Miguel & Torero, Maximo & von Braun, Joachim, 2009. "When speculation matters:," Issue briefs 57, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Hikaru Hanawa Peterson & William G. Tomek, 2005.
"How much of commodity price behavior can a rational expectations storage model explain?,"
International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 33(3), pages 289-303, November.
- Peterson, Hikaru Hanawa & Tomek, William G., 2003. "How Much Of Commodity Price Behavior Can A Rational Expectations Storage Model Explain?," Staff Papers 30712, Kansas State University, Department of Agricultural Economics.
- Thompson, Wyatt & Meyer, Seth & Westhoff, Pat, 2009. "How does petroleum price and corn yield volatility affect ethanol markets with and without an ethanol use mandate?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 745-749, February.
- Amanor-Boadu, Vincent & Zereyesus, Yacob Abrehe, 2009. "How Much Did Speculation Contribute to Recent Food Price Inflation?," 2009 Annual Meeting, January 31-February 3, 2009, Atlanta, Georgia 46841, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
Blog mentionsAs found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Ikram Jebabli & Mohamed Arouri & Frédéric Teulon, 2014. "On the effects of world stock market and oil price shocks on food prices: An empirical investigation based on TVPVAR models with stochastic volatility," Working Papers 2014-209, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
- Maitre d'Hotel, Elodie & le Cotty, Tristan & Jayne, Thomas S., 2012.
"Is A Public Regulation Of Food Price Volatility Feasible In Africa? An Arch Approach In Kenya,"
123rd Seminar, February 23-24, 2012, Dublin, Ireland
122551, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
- Elodie Maître D'Hôtel & Tristan Le Cotty & Thomas Jayne, 2012. "Is a public regulation of food price volatility feasible in Africa? An arch approach in Kenya," Post-Print hal-00801361, HAL.
- Bellemare, Marc F. & Barrett, Christopher B. & Just, David R., 2010. "The Welfare Impacts of Commodity Price Fluctuations: Evidence from Rural Ethiopia," MPRA Paper 24457, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Ott, Herve, 2012. "Which factors drive which volatility in the grain sector?," 123rd Seminar, February 23-24, 2012, Dublin, Ireland 122486, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
- Dasgupta, Dipak & Dubey, R.N. & Sathish, R, 2011. "Domestic Wheat Price Formation and Food Inflation in India," MPRA Paper 31564, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Koliai, Lyes & Avouyi-Dovi, Sanvi & Ano Sujithan, Kuhanathan, 2014. "On the determinants of food price volatility," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/12798, Paris Dauphine University.
- Dipak Dasgupta & R N Dubey & R Satish, 2011. "Domestic Wheat Price Formation and Food Inflation in India: International Prices, Domestic Drivers (Stocks, Weather, Public Policy), and the Efficacy of Public Policy Interventions in Wheat Markets," Working Papers id:4291, eSocialSciences.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow) or (Hassan Zaidi).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.