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From Subprime Loans to Subprime Growth? Evidence for the Euro Area

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Author Info
Martin Cihák
Petya Koeva Brooks
Abstract

The global financial crisis has highlighted the potential of financial conditions for influencing real economic activity. We examine the linkages between the financial and real sectors in the euro area, finding that (i) bank loan supply responds negatively to declines in bank soundness; (ii) a cutback in bank loan supply has a negative impact on economic activity; (iii) a positive shock to the corporate bond spread lowers industrial output; and (iv) risk indicators for the banking, corporate, and public sectors show an improvement beginning in 2002–03, followed by a major deterioration since 2007. These estimates imply that the currently estimated bank losses would subtract some 2 percentage points from the euro area output (but with considerable uncertainty around the estimates).

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 09/69.

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Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: 27 Mar 2009
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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:09/69

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Keywords: Credit risk ; Euro Area ; Financial sector ; Real sector ; Banking ; Demand for money ; Interest rates ; Financial risk ; Economic models ;

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  1. Altunbas, Yener & Fazylov, Otabek & Molyneux, Philip, 2002. "Evidence on the bank lending channel in Europe," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(11), pages 2093-2110, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Mark Gertler & Cara S. Lown, 2000. "The Information in the High Yield Bond Spread for the Business Cycle: Evidence and Some Implications," NBER Working Papers 7549, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Ignazio Angeloni & Michael Ehrmann, 2003. "Monetary transmission in the euro area: early evidence," Economic Policy, CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 469-501, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Iacoviello, Matteo & Minetti, Raoul, 2008. "The credit channel of monetary policy: Evidence from the housing market," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 69-96, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Brad Setser & Mark Allen & Christian Keller & Christoph B. Rosenberg & Nouriel Roubini, 2002. "A Balance Sheet Approach to Financial Crisis," IMF Working Papers 02/210, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  7. Dale F. Gray & Robert C. Merton & Zvi Bodie, 2007. "New Framework for Measuring and Managing Macrofinancial Risk and Financial Stability," NBER Working Papers 13607, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Elena Loukoianova & Cheng Hoon Lim & Samuel Malone & Dale F. Gray, 2008. "A Risk-Based Debt Sustainability Framework: Incorporating Balance Sheets and Uncertainty," IMF Working Papers 08/40, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  9. Adolfo Barajas & Roberto Steiner, 2002. "Credit Stagnation in Latin America," IMF Working Papers 02/53, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Jesper Berg & Annalisa Ferrando & Gabe de Bondt & Silvia Scopel, 2005. "The bank lending survey for the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 23, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  11. Jorge A. Chan-Lau & Iryna V. Ivaschenko, 2002. "The Corporate Spread Curve and Industrial Production in the United States," IMF Working Papers 02/8, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  12. Martin Cihák & Tigran Poghosyan, 2009. "Distress in European Banks: An Analysis Based on a New Dataset," IMF Working Papers 09/9, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  13. Mody, Ashoka & Taylor, Mark P., 2004. "Financial predictors of real activity and the financial accelerator," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 167-172, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Kakes, Jan & Sturm, Jan-Egbert, 2002. "Monetary policy and bank lending:: Evidence from German banking groups," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(11), pages 2077-2092, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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