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Accounting for Output Drops in Latin America

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  • Ruy Lama
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Abstract

This paper evaluates what type of models can account for the recent episodes of output drops in Latin America. I develop an open economy version of the business cycle accounting methodology (Chari, Kehoe, and McGrattan, 2007) in which output fluctuations are decomposed into four sources: total factor productivity (TFP), a labor wedge, a capital wedge, and a bond wedge. The paper shows that the most promising models are the ones that induce fluctuations of TFP and the labor wedge. On the other hand, models of fnancial frictions that translate into a bond or capital wedge are not successful in explaining output drops in Latin America. The paper also discusses the implications of these results for policy analysis using alternative DSGE models.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 09/67.

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Length: 49
Date of creation: 01 Mar 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:09/67

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Keywords: Latin America; Emerging markets; Labor productivity; Economic models; bond; business cycle; business cycles; total factor productivity; bonds; growth model; gdp per capita; neoclassical growth model; international bond; international bonds; money market; costs of business cycles; stock of capital; money market interest; money market interest rate; growth rate; financial markets; international capital markets; international interest rates; international capital; real business cycle; foreign bonds; currency crises; currency crisis; international financial statistics; growth rates; business cycle fluctuations; real business cycles;

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Cited by:
  1. Jesús Rodríguez López & Mario Solís-García, 2012. "Accounting Spanish business cycles: What can be learned from past recessions?," Working Papers 12.05, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Economics.
  2. Lama, Ruy & Urrutia, Carlos, 2012. "Employment Protection and Business Cycles in Emerging Economies," Working Papers 2012-003, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
  3. Seon Tae Kim, 2014. "The Price of Imports and TFP: Application to the Korean Crisis of 1997-98," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 17(1), pages 39-51, January.
  4. Fricke, Hans & Süssmuth, Bernd, 2014. "Growth and Volatility of Tax Revenues in Latin America," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 114-138.
  5. Bridji, Slim, 2013. "The French Great Depression: A business cycle accounting analysis," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 427-445.
  6. Dooyeon Cho & Antonio Doblas-Madrid, 2013. "Business Cycle Accounting East and West: Asian Finance and the Investment Wedge," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 16(4), pages 724-744, October.
  7. Chakraborty, Suparna & Otsu, Keisuke, 2012. "Deconstructing Growth - A Business Cycle Accounting Approach with application to BRICs," MPRA Paper 41076, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Keisuke Otsu, 2012. "How well can business cycle accounting account for business cycles?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(2), pages 1774-1784.
  9. Fricke, Hans & Süssmuth, Bernd, 2013. "Growth and volatility of tax revenues in Latin America," Working Papers 124, University of Leipzig, Faculty of Economics and Management Science.

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