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Developing a Structured Forecasting and Policy Analysis System to Support Inflation-Forecast Targeting (IFT)

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Author Info

  • Douglas Laxton
  • Alasdair Scott
  • David Rose

Abstract

This paper presents a basic plan for developing a Forecast and Policy Analysis System designed to support an inflation-forecast targeting regime at a central bank. It includes discussion of the development of data management and reporting processes; the creation of a forecast team and the development of human capital; the implementation of a simple model, plus possible extensions; and the management of regular economic projections. We emphasize that it is better to implement simple models earlier and use them well, rather than wait in an attempt to develop an all-encompassing model.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 09/65.

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Length: 67
Date of creation: 01 Mar 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:09/65

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Related research

Keywords: Forecasting models; Data analysis; Databases; Human capital;

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

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  1. Douglas Laxton & Michael Kumhof, 2007. "A Party without a Hangover? On the Effects of U.S. Government Deficits," IMF Working Papers 07/202, International Monetary Fund.
  2. International Monetary Fund, 2009. "Inflation Targeting Under Imperfect Policy Credibility," IMF Working Papers 09/94, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Guy Meredith & Menzie D. Chinn, 1998. "Long-Horizon Uncovered Interest Rate Parity," NBER Working Papers 6797, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Jorge Canales-Kriljenko & Turgut Kisinbay & Rodolfo Maino & Eric Parrado, 2006. "Setting the Operational Framework for Producing Inflation Forecasts," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 362, Central Bank of Chile.
  2. Marcel Peter & Scott Roger & Geoffrey Heenan, 2006. "Implementing Inflation Targeting: Institutional Arrangements, Target Design, and Communications," IMF Working Papers 06/278, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Viktor Kotlán, 2001. "Monetary policy and the term structure of interest rates in a small open economy - a model framework approach," Macroeconomics 0110003, EconWPA.
  4. Douglas Laxton & Andrew Berg & Philippe D Karam, 2006. "A Practical Model-Based Approach to Monetary Policy Analysis--Overview," IMF Working Papers 06/80, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Katerina Smidkova, 2003. "Methods Available to Monetary Policy Makers to Deal with Uncertainty," Macroeconomics 0310002, EconWPA.

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