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Global Imbalances

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Author Info

  • Massimiliano Pisani
  • Pietro Cova
  • Alessandro Rebucci

Abstract

This paper investigates the role played by emerging Asia in the emergence and evolution of the global trade imbalances. Based on simulations in a general equilibrium model of the world economy, we find that a productivity slowdown in the non-tradable sector of these economies in the second half of the 1990s fits regional macroeconomic developments relatively well, but has limited spillover effect to the United States trade balance. In contrast, an increase in the desired level of emerging Asia net foreign assets starting in 2001 not only fits regional developments relatively well, but also has a significant spillover effect to the United States.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 09/64.

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Length: 40
Date of creation: 01 Mar 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:09/64

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Related research

Keywords: Productivity; Payments imbalances; Emerging markets; Balance of payments deficits; Foreign exchange reserves; Economic models; exchange rate; tradable goods; intermediate goods; terms of trade; elasticity of substitution; world economy; real exchange rate; effective exchange rate; domestic firms; exchange rates; real effective exchange rate; trade imbalances; nontradable goods; imported goods; investment goods; domestic goods; trade deficit; foreign exchange; current account balance; domestic consumption; intermediate inputs; import price; global trade; international trade; equilibrium model; wholesale price; perfect competition; export markets; global merchandise; net exports; merchandise trade; current account deficit; domestic demand; bilateral real exchange rate; import demand; exchange rate regime; importing country; import substitution; domestic market; external position; domestic prices; constant elasticity of substitution; unit of labor; trading partners; transmission of technology; effective exchange rates; investment flows; exchange rate adjustments; exporting countries; real exchange rates; exchange rate changes; exchange reserves; price discrimination; national markets; real exchange rate depreciation; balance of payments; global scale; world output; exchange rate appreciation; asset market; exchange rate depreciation; open economies;

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References

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  1. Ricardo J. Caballero & Emmanuel Farhi & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, 2008. "An Equilibrium Model of "Global Imbalances" and Low Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 358-93, March.
  2. Benjamin Hunt & Alessandro Rebucci, 2005. "The US Dollar and the Trade Deficit: What Accounts for the Late 1990s?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(3), pages 399-434, December.
  3. Pietro Cova & Massimiliano Pisani & Alessandro Rebucci, 2009. "Global Imbalances: The Role of Emerging Asia," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(4), pages 716-733, 09.
  4. Nicoletta Batini & Alessandro Rebucci & Papa M'B. P. N'Diaye, 2005. "The Domestic and Global Impact of Japan's Policies for Growth," IMF Working Papers 05/209, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Fogli, Alessandra & Perri, Fabrizio, 2006. "The 'Great Moderation' and the US External Imbalance," CEPR Discussion Papers 6010, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Sebastian Edwards, 2007. "On Current Account Surpluses and the Correction of Global Imbalances," NBER Working Papers 12904, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Giancarlo Corsetti & Luca Dedola & Sylvain Leduc, 2006. "Productivity, External Balance and Exchange Rates: Evidence on the Transmission Mechanism Among G7 Countries," NBER Working Papers 12483, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Blanchard, Olivier & Giavazzi, Francesco & Sa, Filipa, 2005. "The US Current Account and the Dollar," CEPR Discussion Papers 4888, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Lutz Kilian & Alessandro Rebucci & Nikola Spatafora, 2007. "Oil Shocks and External Balances," Working Papers 562, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
  10. Pietro Cova & Massimiliano Pisani & Nicoletta Batini & Alessandro Rebucci, 2008. "Productivity and Global Imbalances: The Role of Nontradable Total Factor Productivity in Advanced Economies," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 55(2), pages 312-325, June.
  11. Bems, Rudolfs & Dedola, Luca & Smets, Frank, 2007. "US imbalances: The role of technology and policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 523-545, June.
  12. Reuven Glick & Kenneth Rogoff, 1993. "Global Versus Country-Specific Productivity Shocks and the Current Acocount," Boston University - Institute for Economic Development 31, Boston University, Institute for Economic Development.
  13. Sebastián Edwards, 2007. "On Current Account Surpluses and the Correction of Global Imbalances," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 440, Central Bank of Chile.
  14. Hamid Faruqee & Douglas Laxton & Dirk Muir & Paolo Pesenti, 2005. "Smooth Landing or Crash? Model-Based Scenarios of Global Current Account Rebalancing," NBER Working Papers 11583, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Gordon, Robert J, 2004. "Five Puzzles in the Behaviour of Productivity, Investment and Innovation," CEPR Discussion Papers 4414, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Bénassy-Quéré, Agnès & Carton, Benjamin & Gauvin, Ludovic, 2013. "China and global rebalancing: A two-country approach," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 118-139.
  2. Alessandro Barattieri, 2011. "Comparative Advantage, Service Trade, and Global Imbalances," Cahiers de recherche 1134, CIRPEE.
  3. Sandra Gomes & Pascal Jacquinot & Massimiliano Pisani, 2010. "The EAGLE. A model for policy analysis of macroeconomic interdependence in the euro area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 770, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  4. Coricelli, Fabrizio & Ravasan, Farshad R & Wörgötter, Andreas, 2013. "The origins of the German current account surplus: Unbalanced productivity growth and structural change," CEPR Discussion Papers 9527, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Chevallier, Julien, 2012. "Global imbalances, cross-market linkages, and the financial crisis : a multivariate Markov-Switching analysis," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/8773, Paris Dauphine University.
  6. Fabrizio Coricelli & Andreas Wörgötter, 2012. "Structural Change and the Current Account: The Case of Germany," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 940, OECD Publishing.
  7. Don Nakornthab & Jittapa Prachuabmoh & Tientip Subhanij & Kessarin Tansuwanarat, 2009. "Challenges in the New Global Macroeconomic and Financial Environment," Working Papers 2009-03, Economic Research Department, Bank of Thailand.

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