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Global Imbalances: The Role of Non-TradableTotal Factor Productivity in Advanced Economies

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Author Info
Nicoletta Batini
Pietro Cova
Massimiliano Pisani
Alessandro Rebucci

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Abstract

This paper investigates the role played by total factor productivity (TFP) in the tradable and nontradable sectors of the United States, the euro area, and Japan in the emergence and evolution of today's global trade imbalances. Simulation results based on a dynamic general equilibrium model of the world economy, and using the EU KLEMS database, indicate that TFP developments in these economies can account for a significant fraction of the total deterioration in the U.S. trade balance since 1999, as well as account for some the surpluses in the euro area and Japan. Differences in TFP developments across sectors can also partially explain the evolution of the real effective value of the U.S. dollar during this period.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 09/63.

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Length: 39 pages
Date of creation: 24 Mar 2009
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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:09/63

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Keywords: Payments imbalances ; United States ; European Union ; Japan ; Developed countries ; Productivity ; Balance of trade ; Economic models ; Time series ; Cross country analysis ;

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  1. Nicoletta Batini & Papa M'B. P. N'Diaye & Alessandro Rebucci, 2005. "The Domestic and Global Impact of Japan's Policies for Growth," IMF Working Papers 05/209, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Benjamin Hunt & Alessandro Rebucci, 2005. "The US Dollar and the Trade Deficit: What Accounts for the Late 1990s?," International Finance, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 8(3), pages 399-434, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Hamid Faruqee & Douglas Laxton & Dirk Muir & Paolo A. Pesenti, 2007. "Smooth Landing or Crash? Model-Based Scenarios of Global Current Account Rebalancing," NBER Chapters, in: G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, pages 377-456 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Bems, Rudolfs & Dedola, Luca & Smets, Frank, 2007. "US imbalances: The role of technology and policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 523-545, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Robert J. Gordon, 2004. "Five Puzzles in the Behavior of Productivity, Investment, and Innovation," NBER Working Papers 10660, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Sebastián Edwards, 2007. "On Current Account Surpluses and the Correction of Global Imbalances," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 440, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  7. Sebastian Edwards, 2007. "On Current Account Surpluses and the Correction of Global Imbalances," NBER Working Papers 12904, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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