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A Primeron Fiscal Analysis in Oil-Producing Countries

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  • Paulo A. Medas
  • Daria Zakharova
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    Abstract

    This paper proposes an integrated approach to fiscal policy analysis in oil producing countries (OPCs) geared towards addressing their unique and complex policy challenges. First, an accurate assessment of the fiscal stance in OPCs can be obscured by large and volatile oil revenue flows. Second, uncertain and volatile oil revenue flows can complicate the management of macroeconomic policies in these countries. Third, given the exhaustibility of oil reserves, OPCs need to address longer-term sustainability and intergenerational equity issues. The use of non-oil fiscal indicators, stress tests, medium-term frameworks, and permanent oil income models can greatly aid in addressing these challenges.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 09/56.

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    Length: 41
    Date of creation: 01 Mar 2009
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:09/56

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    Related research

    Keywords: Oil producing countries; Oil revenues; Commodity price fluctuations; Nonoil sector; Revenue sources; fiscal policy; oil prices; fiscal sustainability; fiscal indicators; oil reserves; fiscal stance; oil producing; fiscal institutions; fiscal rules; fiscal management; fiscal adjustment; primary deficit; oil companies; fiscal framework; fiscal position; fiscal analysis; oil sector; national oil; government spending; oil production; public debt; aggregate demand; annual budget; public expenditure; long-term fiscal sustainability; fiscal policies; public spending; fiscal responsibility; expenditure increases; petroleum products; national oil companies; annual budgets; oil-producing countries; fiscal coverage; oil exporters; fiscal effort; fiscal risks; fiscal consolidation; key fiscal indicators; world oil prices; medium-term fiscal framework; fiscal balance; tax effort; primary expenditure; fiscal authorities; government expenditure; public expenditures; quasi-fiscal activity; oil exploration; fiscal rule; fiscal activities; fiscal consequences; fiscal responsibility frameworks; expenditure policy; fiscal costs; fiscal adjustments; fiscal statistics; oil and gas; primary fiscal balance; fiscal vulnerabilities; fiscal regime; quasi-fiscal activities; fiscal activity; high spending; oil company; oil resources; oil discoveries; fiscal priorities; fiscal policy objectives; petroleum product prices; social expenditure; fiscal affairs department; government revenue; structural fiscal reform; fiscal measures; oil market; fiscal revenues; tax base; expenditure levels; fiscal targets; fiscal risk; fiscal vulnerability; fiscal discipline; fiscal policy statements; fiscal deficits; fuel prices; renewable resources; expansionary fiscal policy; fiscal balances; international oil companies; fiscal expenditure; fiscal frameworks; loose fiscal policy; spending cuts; central government budget; fiscal issues; foreign interest payments; structural fiscal; oil discovery; budget balance; refined products; expansionary fiscal; revenue collection; discretionary fiscal policies; fiscal policy targets; tax revenue; fiscal reform; fiscal objectives; fiscal positions; budget constraints; fiscal situation; budgetary flexibility; fiscal responsibility laws; economic stability; fiscal deficit; quality of public spending; budget allocations; medium-term fiscal frameworks; budget surplus; expenditure cuts; expenditure growth; fiscal variables; gasoline prices; budget process; fiscal transparency; government budget; fiscal affairs; fiscal impulse; foreign debt; fuel consumption; oil price fluctuations;

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    1. Aizenman, Joshua & Marion, Nancy P, 1993. "Policy Uncertainty, Persistence and Growth," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(2), pages 145-63, June.
    2. Paul Collier & Benedikt Goderis, 2007. "Commodity Prices, Growth, and the Natural Resource Curse: Reconciling a Conundrum," Economics Series Working Papers WPS/2007-15, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    3. Frederick van der Ploeg & Anthony J Venables, 2008. "Harnessing Windfall Revenues in Developing Economies: Sovereign wealth funds and optimal tradeoffs between citizen dividends, public infrastructure and debt reduction," OxCarre Working Papers 009, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
    4. Michael Gavin, 1997. "A Decade of Reform in Latin America: Has it Delivered Lower Volatility?," IDB Publications 6429, Inter-American Development Bank.
    5. Michael Gavin, 1997. "A Decade of Reform in Latin America: Has it Delivered Lower Volatility?," Research Department Publications 4076, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    6. Nada Choueiri & Klaus-Stefan Enders & Yuri Vladimirovich Sobolev & Jan Walliser & Sherwyn Williams, 2002. "Yemen in the 1990s," IMF Occasional Papers 208, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Qing Wang & Ugo Fasano-Filho, 2002. "Testing the Relationship Between Government Spending and Revenue," IMF Working Papers 02/201, International Monetary Fund.
    8. David Coady & Taimur Baig & Joseph Ntamatungiro & Amine Mati, 2007. "Domestic Petroleum Product Prices and Subsidies," IMF Working Papers 07/71, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:
    1. Vafa Moayedi, 2013. "Reassessing The Effect Of Fiscal And Monetary Policies In Iran: The St. Louis Equation Revisited," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 38(4), pages 123-141, December.
    2. Jeffrey Frankel, 2011. "A Solution to Fiscal Procyclicality: the Structural Budget Institutions Pioneered by Chile," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 14(2), pages 39-78, August.
    3. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2011. "A Lesson from the South for Fiscal Policy in the US and Other Advanced Countries," Working Paper Series rwp11-014, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    4. Basher, Syed Abul, 2010. "Has the non-oil sector decoupled from oil sector? A case study of Gulf Cooperation Council Countries," MPRA Paper 21059, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Carlos Caceres & Serhan Cevik & Ricardo Fenochietto & Borja Gracia, 2013. "The Day After Tomorrow," IMF Working Papers 13/79, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2011. "Over-optimism in Forecasts by Official Budget Agencies and its Implications," Scholarly Articles 8705906, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
    7. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2012. "The Natural Resource Curse: A Survey of Diagnoses and Some Prescriptions," Scholarly Articles 8694932, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
    8. World Bank, 2009. "Sudan - Toward Sustainable and Broad-Based Growth," World Bank Other Operational Studies 3169, The World Bank.
    9. Lee Robinson & Alice Nicole Sindzingre, 2012. "China’s Ambiguous Impacts on Commodity-Dependent Countries: the Example of Sub-Saharan Africa (with a Focus on Zambia)," EconomiX Working Papers 2012-39, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.
    10. World Bank, 2009. "Sudan - The Road Toward Sustainable and Broad-Based Growth," World Bank Other Operational Studies 3183, The World Bank.
    11. Torfinn Harding & Frederick Van der Ploeg, 2009. "Is Norway's Bird-in-Hand Stabilization Fund Prudent Enough? Fiscal Reactions to Hydrocarbon Windfalls and Graying Populations," CESifo Working Paper Series 2830, CESifo Group Munich.
    12. Annabelle Mourougane, 2011. "Refining Macroeconomic Policies to Sustain Growth in Brazil," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 899, OECD Publishing.
    13. Stephen Snudden, 2013. "Cyclical Fiscal Rules for Oil-Exporting Countries," IMF Working Papers 13/229, International Monetary Fund.
    14. El Anshasy, Amany A. & Bradley, Michael D., 2012. "Oil prices and the fiscal policy response in oil-exporting countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 605-620.

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