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The Second Transition

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Author Info

  • Daniel Leigh
  • Stefania Fabrizio
  • Ashoka Mody

Abstract

The countries of Eastern Europe achieved two remarkable transitions in the short period of the last two decades: from plan to market and, then, in the run-up to and entry into the European Union, they rode a wave of global trade and financial market integration. Focusing on the second transition, this paper reaches three conclusions. First, by several metrics, East European and East Asian growth performances were about on par from the mid-1990s; both regions far surpassed Latin American growth. Second, the mechanisms of growth in East Europe and East Asia were, however, very different. East Europe relied on a distinctive-often discredited-model, embracing financial integration with structural change to compensate for appreciating real exchange rates. In contrast, East Asia contained further financial integration and maintained steady or depreciating real exchange rates. Third, the ongoing financial turbulence has, thus far, not had an obviously differential impact on emerging market regions: rather, the hot spots in each region reflect individual country vulnerabilities. If the East European growth model is distinctive, is it sustainable and replicable? The paper speculates on the possibilities.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 09/43.

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Length: 35
Date of creation: 01 Mar 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:09/43

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Keywords: Trade; Transition economies; Eastern Europe; Emerging markets; Economic growth; European Union; exchange rate; real exchange rate; trade openness; exchange rates; exchange rate appreciation; world exports; real exchange rate appreciation; international trade; per capita income; export shares; world market; foreign exchange reserves; real exchange rates; terms of trade; economic liberalization; real effective exchange rates; income convergence; global trade; trade integration; export share; effective exchange rates; current account deficit; exchange reserves; current account balance; foreign exchange; global markets; exchange rate movements; global shocks; world trade; competition policy; currency markets; process of integration; domestic savings; currency depreciation; world economy; market integration; tariff barriers; economic convergence; currency appreciation; political constituencies; price liberalization; neighboring countries; regulatory barriers; domestic businesses; export structure; current accounts; competitive price;

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References

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  1. Sabine Herrmann & Adalbert Winkler, 2009. "Financial markets and the current account: emerging Europe versus emerging Asia," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 145(3), pages 531-550, October.
  2. Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2006. "What matters for financial development? Capital controls, institutions, and interactions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 163-192, October.
  3. Sabine Herrmann & Adalbert Winkler, 2008. "Real convergence, financial markets, and the current account – Emerging Europe versus emerging Asia," Occasional Paper Series 88, European Central Bank.
  4. Hausmann, Ricardo & Pritchett, Lant & Rodrik, Dani, 2004. "Growth Accelerations," CEPR Discussion Papers 4538, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2008. "The Anatomy of Start-Stop Growth," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(3), pages 582-587, August.
  6. Ashoka Mody & Deniz Igan & Stefania Fabrizio, 2007. "The Dynamics of Product Quality and International Competitiveness," IMF Working Papers 07/97, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Ashoka Mody & Stefania Fabrizio, 2006. "Can Budget Institutions Counteract Political Indiscipline?," IMF Working Papers 06/123, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Ashoka Mody & Stefania Fabrizio, 2008. "Breaking the Impediments to Budgetary Reforms," IMF Working Papers 08/82, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Susan Schadler & Pipat Luengnaruemitchai, 2007. "Do Economists' and Financial Markets' Perspectiveson the New Members of the Eu Differ?," IMF Working Papers 07/65, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Eswar Prasad & Raghuram G. Rajan & Arvind Subramanian, 2006. "Patterns of international capital flows and their implications for economic development," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 119-158.
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Cited by:
  1. Marcin, Piatkowski, 2009. "The Coming Golden Age of New Europe," MPRA Paper 19523, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Winkler, Adalbert, 2010. "The Financial Crisis: A Wake-Up Call for Strengthening Regional Monitoring of Financial Markets and Regional Coordination of Financial Sector Policies?," ADBI Working Papers 199, Asian Development Bank Institute.
  3. Ruben Atoyan, 2010. "Beyond the crisis: revisiting emerging Europe’s growth model," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 34(4), pages 329-356.
  4. Karsten Staehr, 2010. "Income convergence and inflation in Central and Eastern Europe : does the sun always rise in the East," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2010-04, Bank of Estonia, revised 22 Mar 2010.
  5. Emil Panusheff, 2011. "The effect of the milieu and the financial crisis on the economic stability of the EU Member States," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 2, pages 64-80.

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