The Macroeconomic Impact of Scaled-Up Aid
AbstractWe develop a simple macroeconomic model that assesses the effects of higher foreign aid on output growth and other macroeconomic variables, including the real exchange rate. The model is easily tractable and requires estimation of only a few basic parameters. It takes into account the impact of aid on physical and human capital accumulation, while recognizing that the impact of the latter is more protracted. Application of the model to Niger-one of the poorest countries in the world-suggests that if foreign aid as a share of GDP were to be permanently increased from the equivalent of 10 percent of GDP in 2007 to 15 percent in 2008, annual economic growth would accelerate by more than 1 percentage point, without generating significant risks for macroeconomic stability. As a result, by 2020 Niger''s income per capita would be 12.5 percent higher than it would be without increased foreign aid. Moreover, the higher growth would help Niger to cut the incidence of poverty by 25 percent by 2015, although the country will still be unable to reach the Millennium Development Goal of poverty reduction (MDG 1).
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 09/36.
Date of creation: 01 Mar 2009
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA
Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
More information through EDIRC
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-AFR-2009-03-28 (Africa)
- NEP-ALL-2009-03-28 (All new papers)
- NEP-DEV-2009-03-28 (Development)
- NEP-MAC-2009-03-28 (Macroeconomics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Matteo Bobba & Andrew Powell, 2007. "Aid and Growth: Politics Matters," Research Department Publications 4511, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
- C-J. Dalgaard & H. Hansen, 2001. "On Aid, Growth and Good Policies," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(6), pages 17-41.
- Raghuram G. Rajan, 2005.
"Aid and Growth: What Does The Cross-Country Evidence Really Show?,"
- Raghuram G. Rajan & Arvind Subramanian, 2008. "Aid and Growth: What Does the Cross-Country Evidence Really Show?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(4), pages 643-665, November.
- Raghuram G. Rajan & Arvind Subramanian, 2005. "Aid and Growth: What Does the Cross-Country Evidence Really Show?," NBER Working Papers 11513, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Martin MÃ¼hleisen & Dhaneshwar Ghura & Roger Nord & Michael T. Hadjimichael & E. Murat Ucer, 1995. "Sub-Saharan Africa," IMF Occasional Papers 118, International Monetary Fund.
- R. Lensink & H. White, 2001.
"Are There Negative Returns to Aid?,"
Journal of Development Studies,
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(6), pages 42-65.
- David Dollar & Craig Burnside, 2000.
"Aid, Policies, and Growth,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 847-868, September.
- Raghuram G. Rajan & Arvind Subramanian, 2005.
"What Undermines Aid's Impact on Growth?,"
NBER Working Papers
11657, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Michael A. Clemens & Steven Radelet & Rikhil Bhavnani, 2004.
"Counting chickens when they hatch: The short-term effect of aid on growth,"
- Michael Clemens & Steven Radelet & Rikhil Bhavnani, 2004. "Counting Chickens When They Hatch: The Short-term Effect of Aid on Growth," Working Papers 44, Center for Global Development.
- Mankiw, N Gregory & Romer, David & Weil, David N, 1992.
"A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 107(2), pages 407-37, May.
- Minoiu, Camelia & Reddy, Sanjay G., 2010.
"Development aid and economic growth: A positive long-run relation,"
The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 27-39, February.
- Sanjay G. Reddy & Camelia Minoiu, 2006. "Development Aid and Economic Growth: A Positive Long-Run Relation," Working Papers 29, United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs.
- Lisa CHAUVET & Patrick GUILLAUMONT, 2003. "Aid and Growth Revisited: Policy, Economic Vulnerability and Political Instability," Working Papers 200327, CERDI.
- Pierre-Richard Agénor & Nihal Bayraktar & Emmanuel Pinto Moreira & Karim El Aynaoui, 2006.
"Achieving the Millennium Development Goals in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Macroeconomic Monitoring Framework,"
The World Economy,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(11), pages 1519-1547, November.
- Agenor, Pierre-Richard & Bayraktar, Nihal & Pinto Moreira, Emmanuel & El Aynaoui, Karim, 2005. "Achieving the Millennium Development Goals in Sub-Saharan Africa : a macroeconomic monitoring framework," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3750, The World Bank.
- Griffin, Keith B & Enos, J L, 1970. "Foreign Assistance: Objectives and Consequences," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 18(3), pages 313-27, April.
- Raghuram Rajan & Arvind Subramanian, 2005. "Aid and Growth," IMF Working Papers 05/127, International Monetary Fund.
- Papanek, Gustav F, 1973. "Aid, Foreign Private Investment, Savings, and Growth in Less Developed Countries," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(1), pages 120-30, Jan.-Feb..
- Claudio Montenegro & A. Senhadji Semlali, 1998. "Time Series Analysis of Export Demand Equations," IMF Working Papers 98/149, International Monetary Fund.
- Emanuele Baldacci & Qiang Cui & Benedict J. Clements & Sanjeev Gupta, 2004. "Social Spending, Human Capital, and Growth in Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 04/217, International Monetary Fund.
- Strand, Jon, 2009. ""Revenue management"effects related to financial flows generated by climate policy," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5053, The World Bank.
- Joannes Mongardini & Issouf SamakÃ©, 2009. "The Macroeconomics of Scaling Up Aid," IMF Working Papers 09/115, International Monetary Fund.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow) or (Hassan Zaidi).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.