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The Volatility Costs of Procyclical Lending Standards

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  • Silvia Sgherri
  • Bertrand Gruss

Abstract

The ongoing financial turmoil has triggered a lively debate on ways of containing systemic risk and lessening the likelihood of boom-and-bust episodes in credit markets. Particularly, it has been argued that banking regulation might attenuate procyclicality in lending standards by affecting the behavior of banks’ capital buffers. This paper uses a two-country DSGE model with financial frictions to illustrate how procyclicality in borrowing limits reinforces the “overreaction†of asset prices to shocks described by Aiyagari and Gertler (1999), and to quantify the stabilization gains from policies aimed at smoothing cyclical swings in credit conditions. Results suggest that, in financially constrained economies, the ensuing volatility reduction in equity prices, investment, and external imbalances would be sizable. In the presence of cross-border spillovers, gains would be even higher.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 09/35.

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Length: 37
Date of creation: 01 Mar 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:09/35

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Keywords: Borrowing; External shocks; Spillovers; Credit ceilings; Financial risk; Economic models; standards; calibration; equation; correlation; regulation; sensitivity analysis; statistics; correlations; equations; financial statistics; standard deviation; covariance; simulation results; stochastic process; functional form; probability; stochastic processes; standard error; vector autoregression; time series; econometrics; empirical measure; difference equations; parameter value; simulation process; normal distribution;

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References

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  1. Jesús Saurina & Carlos Trucharte, 2007. "An Assessment of Basel II Procyclicality in Mortgage Portfolios," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 81-101, October.
  2. Jokipii, Terhi & Milne, Alistair, 2007. "The Cyclical Behaviour of European Bank Capital Buffers," SIFR Research Report Series 56, Institute for Financial Research.
  3. Asea, P.K. & Blomberg, S.B., 1997. "Lending Cycles," Papers 97-01, Wellesley College - Department of Economics.
  4. Heathcote, Jonathan & Perri, Fabrizio, 1999. "Financial Autarky and International Business Cycles," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 320, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 30 Apr 2000.
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  9. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1987. "International real business cycles," Working Papers 426, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  10. Rafael Repullo & Javier Suarez, 2008. "The Procyclical Effects Of Basel Ii," Working Papers wp2008_0809, CEMFI.
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  12. Enrique G. Mendoza & Marco E. Terrones, 2008. "An Anatomy Of Credit Booms: Evidence From Macro Aggregates And Micro Data," NBER Working Papers 14049, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Jesús Saurina & Carlos Trucharte, 2007. "An assessment of Basel II procyclicality in mortgage portfolios," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0712, Banco de Espa�a.
  14. Gabriel Jiménez & Jesús Saurina, 2006. "Credit Cycles, Credit Risk, and Prudential Regulation," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(2), May.
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  16. S. Rao Aiyagari & Mark Gertler, 1998. ""Overreaction" of Asset Prices in General Equilibrium," NBER Working Papers 6747, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Matteo Iacoviello & Stefano Neri, 2007. "Housing Market Spillovers: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 659, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 23 Oct 2009.
  18. Iacoviello, Matteo & Minetti, Raoul, 2006. "International business cycles with domestic and foreign lenders," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 2267-2282, November.
  19. Mendoza, Enrique G. & Smith, Katherine A., 2006. "Quantitative implications of a debt-deflation theory of Sudden Stops and asset prices," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 82-114, September.
  20. Jesus, Saurina & Gabriel, Jimenez, 2006. "Credit Cycles, Credit Risk, and Prudential Regulation," MPRA Paper 718, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  21. Ayuso, Juan & Perez, Daniel & Saurina, Jesus, 2004. "Are capital buffers pro-cyclical?: Evidence from Spanish panel data," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 249-264, April.
  22. Jaime C. Guajardo, 2008. "Financial Frictions and Business Cycles in Middle-Income Countries," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Kevin Cowan & Sebastián Edwards & Rodrigo O. Valdés & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmid (ed.), Current Account and External Financing, edition 1, volume 12, chapter 8, pages 279-344 Central Bank of Chile.
  23. Jaime Guajardo, 2008. "Financial Frictions and Business Cycles in Middle-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 08/20, International Monetary Fund.
  24. repec:fth:starer:9825 is not listed on IDEAS
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Quint, Dominic & Rabanal, Pau, 2014. "Monetary and macroprudential policy in an estimated DSGE model of the Euro Area," Discussion Papers 2014/5, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
  2. Hans-Joachim Dübel & Simon Walley, 2010. "Regulation of Foreign Currency Mortgage Loans : The Case of Transition Countries in Central and Eastern Europe," World Bank Other Operational Studies 12943, The World Bank.

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