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Evaluating Historical CGER Assessments:How Well Have They Predicted Subsequent Exchange Rate Movements?

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Author Info

  • Jungjin Lee
  • Abdul Abiad
  • Prakash Kannan

Abstract

The IMF's Consultative Group on Exchange Rate issues (CGER) has been conducting exchange rate assessments as part of the surveillance process since 1997. This paper evaluates CGER assessments from 1997 to 2006, by comparing these to subsequent movements in real effective exchange rates (REER). We find that CGER's estimated misalignments have predictive power over future REER movements, especially over longer horizons and after changes in fundamentals are accounted for. But while CGER misalignments frequently predict the direction of currency movements correctly, misalignments have tended to be persistent, resulting in systematic errors-overprediction for undervalued currencies and underprediction for overvalued currencies.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 09/32.

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Length: 27
Date of creation: 01 Feb 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:09/32

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Related research

Keywords: Exchange rates; Exchange rate assessments; Developed countries; Emerging markets; Exchange rate policy surveillance; Real effective exchange rates; Current account balances; Economic models;

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

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  1. Burnside, A Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin & Kleshchelski, Isaac & Rebelo, Sérgio, 2006. "The Returns to Currency Speculation," CEPR Discussion Papers 5883, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Francis X. Diebold & Robert S. Mariano, 1994. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," NBER Technical Working Papers 0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Peter Isard & Hamid Faruqee, 1998. "Exchange Rate Assessment: Extension of the Macroeconomic Balance Approach," IMF Occasional Papers 167, International Monetary Fund.
  4. G. Russell Kincaid & Martin Fetherston & Peter Isard & Hamid Faruqee, 2001. "Methodology for Current Account and Exchange Rate Assessments," IMF Occasional Papers 209, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Allan Timmermann, 2006. "An Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts," IMF Working Papers 06/59, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Luca Antonio Ricci & Jaewoo Lee & Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2008. "Real Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: A Cross-Country Perspective," IMF Working Papers 08/13, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Paul Cashin & Luis Felipe Céspedes & Ratna Sahay, 2003. "Commodity Currencies and the Real Exchange Rate," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 236, Central Bank of Chile.
  8. Hausman, Jerry A, 1978. "Specification Tests in Econometrics," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1251-71, November.
  9. Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-53, October.
  10. Hinkle, Lawrence E. & Monteil, Peter J. (ed.), 1999. "Exchange Rate Misalignment: Concepts and Measurement for Developing Countries," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195211269.
  11. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
  12. Chen, Yu-chin & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2003. "Commodity currencies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 133-160, May.
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Cited by:
  1. Bassem Kamar & Jean-Etienne Carlotti & Russell C. Krueger, 2009. "Establishing Conversion Values for New Currency Unions: Method and Application to the planned Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Currency Union," IMF Working Papers 09/184, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Durand, C. & Lopez, C., 2012. "Taux de change d’équilibre et mesure de la compétitivité au sein de la zone euro," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 190, pages 125-134.
  3. Jordi Prat & Leandro Medina & Alun H. Thomas, 2010. "Current Account Balance Estimates for Emerging Market Economies," IMF Working Papers 10/43, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Bussière, Matthieu & Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Chudik, Alexander & Dieppe, Alistair, 2010. "Methodological advances in the assessment of equilibrium exchange rates," Working Paper Series 1151, European Central Bank.
  5. Irineu E. Carvalho Filho & Rudolfs Bems, 2009. "Exchange Rate Assessments: Methodologies for Oil Exporting Countries," IMF Working Papers 09/281, International Monetary Fund.

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