Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

The Cost of Aggressive Sovereign Debt Policies

Contents:

Author Info

  • Christoph Trebesch

Abstract

This paper proposes a new empirical measure of cooperative versus conflictual crisis resolution following sovereign default and debt distress. The index of government coerciveness is presented as a proxy for excusable versus inexcusable default behaviour and used to evaluate the costs of default for the domestic private sector, in particular its access to international debt markets. Our findings indicate that unilateral, aggressive sovereign debt policies lead to a strong decline in corporate access to external finance (loans and bond issuance). We conclude that coercive government actions towards external creditors can have strong signalling effects with negative spillovers on domestic firms. "Good faith" debt renegotiations may be crucial to minimize the domestic costs of sovereign defaults.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=22653
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 09/29.

as in new window
Length: 37
Date of creation: 01 Feb 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:09/29

Contact details of provider:
Postal: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA
Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Email:
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Web: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm

Related research

Keywords: External debt; Sovereign debt; Debt management; Debt restructuring; Economic models; debt policies; debt crisis; external borrowing; debt crises; crisis resolution; private creditors; sovereign default; currency crisis; debt renegotiations; financial crises; sovereign defaults; sovereign debt crises; crisis episodes; banking crisis; official creditors; debt exchanges; competitiveness; debt reduction; currency crises; international debt; banking crises; debtor governments; systemic banking crises; domestic agents; government debt; sovereign debt restructuring; central bank; global liquidity; financial distress; debt exchange; current account; private debt; financial crisis; debt policy; external shocks; sovereign bond; international lending; debt servicing; external finance; external debt crisis; corporate sector; systemic financial crises; liability management; debt defaults; foreign debt; bank runs; foreign loans; debt obligations; debt service; financial integration; sovereign bonds; private sector borrowing; pre-crisis; private sector creditors; sovereign debt renegotiations; international crises; debt service to exports; private sector debt; ratio of debt service to exports; borderline financial crises; sovereign debtor; financial sector development; systemic risk; long-term debt; debt contracts; debt problems; repayments; debt negotiations; external financing; ratio of debt; market debt; debt sustainability; country debt crisis; debt rescheduling; reserve bank; crisis situations; debtor government; private sector borrowers; international financial crises;

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Cole, Harold L & Kehoe, Patrick J, 1998. "Models of Sovereign Debt: Partial versus General Reputations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(1), pages 55-70, February.
  2. Guido Sandleris, 2008. "Sovereign Defaults: Information, Investment and Credit," Business School Working Papers 2008-04, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
  3. Gai, Prasanna & Hayes, Simon & Shin, Hyun Song, 2004. "Crisis costs and debtor discipline: the efficacy of public policy in sovereign debt crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 245-262, March.
  4. Oya Celasun & Philipp Harms, 2007. "How does private foreign borrowing affect the risk of sovereign default in developing countries?," Working Papers 07.04, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
  5. Fuentes, Miguel & Saravia, Diego, 2010. "Sovereign defaulters: Do international capital markets punish them?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 336-347, March.
  6. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2001. "The external wealth of nations: measures of foreign assets and liabilities for industrial and developing countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 263-294, December.
  7. Michael Tomz & Mark L. J. Wright, 2007. "Do Countries Default in "Bad Times" ?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(2-3), pages 352-360, 04-05.
  8. Frankel, Jeffrey & Roubini, Nouriel, 2002. "The Role of Industrial Country Policies in Emerging Market Crises," Working Paper Series rwp02-002, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  9. Celasun, Oya & Harms, Philipp, 2008. "Boon or Burden? The Effect of Private Sector Debt on the Risk of Sovereign Default in Developing Countries," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Zurich 2008 16, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
  10. Michael Gapen & Dale Gray & Cheng Hoon Lim & Yingbin Xiao, 2008. "Measuring and Analyzing Sovereign Risk with Contingent Claims," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 55(1), pages 109-148, April.
  11. Ana Fostel & Graciela Laura Kaminsky, 2008. "Latin America´s Access to International Capital Markets: Good Behavior or Global Liquidity?," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Kevin Cowan & Sebastián Edwards & Rodrigo O. Valdés & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmid (ed.), Current Account and External Financing, edition 1, volume 12, chapter 4, pages 117-158 Central Bank of Chile.
  12. Kletzer, Kenneth M. & Wright, Brian D., 1998. "Sovereign Debt as Intertemporal Barter," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series qt4qg3c42v, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  13. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "Serial Default and the "Paradox" of Rich to Poor Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 10296, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Jonathan Eaton, 1990. "Sovereign Debt, Reputation, and Credit Terms," NBER Working Papers 3424, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Andrew K. Rose, 2002. "One Reason Countries Pay Their Debts: Renegotiation and International Trade," Working Papers 042002, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  16. Sergio L. Schmukler & Eduardo Levy-Yeyati & Maria Soledad Martinez Peria, 2004. "Market Discipline under Systemic Risk: Evidence from Bank Runs in Emerging Economies," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 318, Econometric Society.
  17. Herschel I. Grossman & John B. Van Huyck, 1985. "Sovereign Debt as a Contingent Claim: Excusable Default, Repudiation, and Reputation," NBER Working Papers 1673, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Enrique G. Mendoza & Vivian Z. Yue, 2008. "A Solution to the Disconnect between Country Risk and Business Cycle Theories," NBER Working Papers 13861, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Magdalena Polan & Parmeshwar Ramlogan & Carlos I. Medeiros, 2007. "A Primeron Sovereign Debt Buybacks and Swaps," IMF Working Papers 07/58, International Monetary Fund.
  20. Maurice Obstfeld & Alan M. Taylor, 2002. "Sovereign Risk, Credibility and the Gold Standard: 1870-1913 versus 1925-31," NBER Working Papers 9345, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Enrique G. Mandoza & Vivian Z. Yue, 2008. "A solution to the default risk-business cycle disconnect," International Finance Discussion Papers 924, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  22. Andrew K. Rose & Mark M. Spiegel, 2004. "A Gravity Model of Sovereign Lending: Trade, Default, and Credit," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(s1), pages 50-63, June.
  23. Barry Eichengreen., 1990. "Historical Research on International Lending and Debt," Economics Working Papers 90-153, University of California at Berkeley.
  24. Eduardo Borensztein & Ugo Panizza, 2009. "The Costs of Sovereign Default," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(4), pages 683-741, November.
  25. Arteta, Carlos & Hale, Galina, 2008. "Sovereign debt crises and credit to the private sector," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 53-69, January.
  26. Luis A. V. Catao & Ana Fostel & Sandeep Kapur, 2008. "Persistent Gaps and Default Traps," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0803, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
  27. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Ernesto Talvi, 2006. "Phoenix Miracles in Emerging Markets: Recovering without Credit from Systemic Financial Crises," NBER Working Papers 12101, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  28. Amadou N. R. Sy & Andrea Pescatori, 2004. "Debt Crises and the Development of International Capital Markets," IMF Working Papers 04/44, International Monetary Fund.
  29. Dale F. Gray; & Robert C. Merton & Zvi Bodie, 2009. "New Framework for Measuring and Managing Macrofinancial Risk and Financial Stability," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 541, Central Bank of Chile.
  30. Gaston Gelos & Guido Sandleris & Ratna Sahay, 2004. "Sovereign Borrowing by Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 04/221, International Monetary Fund.
  31. Kohlscheen, E. & O’Connell, S. A., 2007. "Trade Credit, International Reserves and Sovereign Debt," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 833, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  32. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Eduardo A. Cavallo, 2004. "Does Openness to Trade Make Countries More Vulnerable to Sudden Stops, Or Less? Using Gravity to Establish Causality," NBER Working Papers 10957, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  33. Eduardo Borensztein & Patricio Valenzuela & Kevin Cowan, 2007. "Sovereign Ceilings "Lite"? T+L3712he Impact of Sovereign Ratingson Corporate Ratings in Emerging Market Economies," IMF Working Papers 07/75, International Monetary Fund.
  34. Ozler, Sule, 1993. "Have Commercial Banks Ignored History?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 608-20, June.
  35. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Luis Fernando Mejía, 2008. "Systemic Sudden Stops: The Relevance of Balance-Sheet Effects and Financial Integration," IDB Publications 6747, Inter-American Development Bank.
  36. Fabian Valencia & Luc Laeven, 2008. "Systemic Banking Crises," IMF Working Papers 08/224, International Monetary Fund.
  37. Ghosal, Sayantan & Miller, Marcus, 2003. "Coordination Failure, Moral Hazard and Sovereign Bankruptcy Procedures," CEPR Discussion Papers 3729, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  38. Haldane, Andrew G. & Penalver, Adrian & Saporta, Victoria & Shin, Hyun Song, 2005. "Analytics of sovereign debt restructuring," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 315-333, March.
  39. Daniel M. Jones & Stuart A. Bremer & J. David Singer, 1996. "Militarized Interstate Disputes, 1816–1992: Rationale, Coding Rules, and Empirical Patterns," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 15(2), pages 163-213, September.
  40. Jeremy I. Bulow & Kenneth Rogoff, 1987. "A Constant Recontracting Model of Sovereign Debt," NBER Working Papers 2088, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  41. Michael P. Dooley, 2000. "Can Output Losses Following International Financial Crises be Avoided?," NBER Working Papers 7531, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  42. James Conklin, 1998. "The Theory of Sovereign Debt and Spain under Philip II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(3), pages 483-513, June.
  43. Chowdhry, Bhagwan, 1991. "What Is Different about International Lending?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 4(1), pages 121-48.
  44. Trebesch, Christoph, 2008. "Delays in Sovereign Debt Restructurings. Should we really blame the creditors?," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Zurich 2008 44, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
  45. Ana Fostel & Graciela Laura Kaminsky, 2007. "Latin America's Access to International Capital Markets: Good Behavior or Global Liquidity?," NBER Working Papers 13194, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  46. Javier Díaz-Cassou & Aitor Erce-Domínguez & Juan J. Vázquez-Zamora, 2008. "Recent episodes of sovereign debt restructurings. A case-study approach," Banco de Espa�a Occasional Papers 0804, Banco de Espa�a.
  47. Harald Finger & Mauro Mecagni, 2007. "Sovereign Debt Restructuring and Debt Sustainability," IMF Occasional Papers 255, International Monetary Fund.
  48. Bulow, Jeremy & Rogoff, Kenneth S., 1989. "A Constant Recontracting Model of Sovereign Debt," Scholarly Articles 12491028, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  49. Manmohan Singh & Jochen R. Andritzky, 2006. "The Pricing of Credit Default Swaps During Distress," IMF Working Papers 06/254, International Monetary Fund.
  50. Alfaro, Laura & Kanczuk, Fabio, 2005. "Sovereign debt as a contingent claim: a quantitative approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 297-314, March.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Aitor Erce Domiguez, 2010. "Debtor Discrimination During Sovereign Debt Restructurings," 2010 Meeting Papers 1324, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  2. Guido Sandleris, 2010. "Sovereign Defaults, Domestic Credit Market Institutions and Credit to the Private Sector," Business School Working Papers 2010-01, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
  3. Dailami, Mansoor, 2010. "Sovereign debt distress and corporate spillover impacts," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5380, The World Bank.
  4. Aitor Erce, 2012. "Selective sovereign defaults," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 127, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:09/29. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow) or (Hassan Zaidi).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.