Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

The Housing Cycle in Emerging Middle Eastern Economies and its Macroeconomic Policy Implications

Contents:

Author Info

  • Samya Beidas-Strom
  • Weicheng Lian
  • Ashwaq Maseeh
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    This paper examines housing finance and housing price dynamics in selected emerging Middle Eastern economies over the past two decades. It finds that (i) mortgage markets have experienced rapid development, which has led to lower private per capita consumer spending volatility this decade; (ii) a downward price correction occurred in the housing market after 2007, which appears to have bottomed out; (iii) the rental market appears to be largely determined by region-specific economic fundamentals-a youthful working-age population and wealth variables; and (iv) a segregation between self-owned house and rental price dynamics exists in this region, rendering the former more sensitive to the business cycle.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=23480
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 09/288.

    as in new window
    Length: 29
    Date of creation: 01 Dec 2009
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:09/288

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA
    Phone: (202) 623-7000
    Fax: (202) 623-4661
    Email:
    Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
    More information through EDIRC

    Order Information:
    Web: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm

    Related research

    Keywords: Economic models; Emerging markets; Household credit; Housing prices; Middle East and Central Asia; Price increases; Real estate prices; mortgage; housing finance; real estate; mortgage market; mortgage markets; mortgage debt; mortgage lending; homeownership; mortgage financing; mortgage loans; real estate research; mortgage credit; mortgage products; property rights; leasehold; housing policies; mortgage finance; housing markets; real estate markets; housing supply; islamic mortgage; land sales; mortgage rate; housing policy; foreclosures; mortgage law; mortgages; mortgage lenders; residential mortgage; foreclosure; housing loans; home loans; residential real estate; residential mortgages; real estate industry; housing economics; mortgage loan; mortgage interest; real estate price; mortgage instruments; primary mortgage markets; real estate market; mortgage rates; mortgage bank; home ownership; real estate developments; second mortgages; traditional mortgage; land titling; secondary mortgage; secondary mortgage markets; housing finance systems; mortgage securities; commercial real estate; access to mortgage; housing loan; housing loan interest rate;

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Calza, Alessandro & Monacelli, Tommaso & Stracca, Livio, 2007. "Mortgage Markets, Collateral Constraints, and Monetary Policy: Do Institutional Factors Matter?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6231, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Orazio Attanasio & Laura Blow & Robert Hamilton & Andrew Leicester, 2005. "Consumption, house prices and expectations," Bank of England working papers 271, Bank of England.
    3. Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Jan-Oliver Menz & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2007. "What Drives Housing Prices Down?: Evidence from an International Panel," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 758, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    4. Ortalo-Magné, François & Rady, Sven, 2005. "Housing Market Dynamics: On the Contribution of Income Shocks and Credit Constraint," Discussion Paper Series of SFB/TR 15 Governance and the Efficiency of Economic Systems 50, Free University of Berlin, Humboldt University of Berlin, University of Bonn, University of Mannheim, University of Munich.
    5. Andreas Billmeier & Isabella Massa, 2007. "What Drives Stock Market Development in the Middle East and Central Asia," IMF Working Papers 07/157, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Case, Karl E & Shiller, Robert J, 1989. "The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 125-37, March.
    7. Paul Louis Ceriel Hilbers & Angana Banerji & Haiyan Shi & Alexander W. Hoffmaister, 2008. "House Price Developments in Europe," IMF Working Papers 08/211, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Shiller, Robert J., 2007. "Understanding Recent Trends in House Prices and Home Ownership," Working Papers 28, Yale University, Department of Economics.
    9. Robert J. Shiller, 2002. "From Efficient Market Theory to Behavioral Finance," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1385, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    10. Aoki, Kosuke & James Proudman & Gertjan Vlieghe, 2003. "House prices, consumption, and monetary policy: a financial accelerator approach," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 7, Royal Economic Society.
    11. Jonas D. M. Fisher, 2007. "Why Does Household Investment Lead Business Investment over the Business Cycle?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115, pages 141-168.
    12. John B. Taylor, 2007. "Housing and monetary policy," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 463-476.
    13. Englund, P. & Ioannides, Y.M., 1996. "House Price Dynamics: An International Empirical Perspective," Papers 1996-01, Uppsala - Working Paper Series.
    14. Richard K. Green & Susan M. Wachter, 2007. "The housing finance revolution," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 21-67.
    15. Bordo, Michael D & Jeanne, Olivier, 2002. "Boom-Busts in Asset Prices, Economic Instability and Monetary Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 3398, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Karen E. Dynan & Douglas W. Elmendorf & Daniel E. Sichel, 2005. "Can financial innovation help to explain the reduced volatility of economic activity?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-54, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    17. A. Senhadji Semlali & Charles Collyns, 2002. "Lending Booms, Real Estate Bubbles and the Asian Crisis," IMF Working Papers 02/20, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Fran�ois Ortalo-Magné & Sven Rady, 2006. "Housing Market Dynamics: On the Contribution of Income Shocks and Credit Constraints ," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 73(2), pages 459-485.
    19. Calvin Schnure, 2005. "Boom-Bust Cycles in Housing," IMF Working Papers 05/200, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Miles, David, 1992. "Housing markets, consumption and financial liberalisation in the major economies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 1093-1127, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as in new window

    Cited by:
    1. Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi, 2012. "Housing Cycles and Macroeconomic Fluctuations: A Global Perspective," Research Department Publications 4810, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    2. Antje Hildebrandt & Duy T. Huynh-Olesen & Katharina Steiner & Karin Wagner, 2013. "Residential Property Prices in Central, Eastern and Southeastern European Countries," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2.
    3. repec:onb:oenbwp:y:2013:i:2:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:09/288. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow) or (Hassan Zaidi).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.