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How Russia Affects the Neighborhood

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Author Info

  • Jaime Espinosa-Bowen
  • Nadeem Ilahi
  • Fahad Alturki

Abstract

We test the extent to which growth in the 11 CIS countries (excluding Russia) was associated with developments in Russia, overall, as well as through the trade, financial and remittance channels over the last decade or so. The results point to the continued existence of economic links between the CIS countries and Russia, though these links may have altered since the 1998 crisis. Russia appears to influence regional growth mainly through the remittance channel and somewhat less so through the financial channel. There is a shrinking role of the trade (exports to Russia) channel. Russian growth shocks are associated with sizable effects on Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, and, to some extent, Georgia.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 09/277.

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Length: 25
Date of creation: 01 Dec 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:09/277

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Related research

Keywords: Spillovers; Emerging markets; Capital flows; Banking crisis; Economic growth; Economic models; Regional shocks; Trade integration; Workers remittances; gdp growth; remittance; remittances; growth rates; growth rate; remittance flows; business cycle; remittance outflows; remittance channels; migrant; business cycles; remittance channel; bilateral remittance; migration; impact of remittances; migrant remittances; growth of remittances; real gdp; gdps; drop in remittances; bilateral remittances; global remittance; private consumption; gdp growth rates;

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References

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  1. Vivek B. Arora & Athanasios Vamvakidis, 2005. "The Implications of South African Economic Growth for the Rest of Africa," IMF Working Papers 05/58, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Kiviet, Jan F., 1995. "On bias, inconsistency, and efficiency of various estimators in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 53-78, July.
  3. AkIn, Cigdem & Kose, M. Ayhan, 2008. "Changing nature of North-South linkages: Stylized facts and explanations," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 1-28, February.
  4. Nadeem Ilahi & Riham Shendy, 2008. "Do the Gulf Oil-Producing Countries Influence Regional Growth? T+L3886he Impact of Financial and Remittance Flows," IMF Working Papers 08/167, International Monetary Fund.
  5. M. Ayhan Kose & Marco Terrones & Eswar Prasad, 2003. "Volatility and Comovement in a Globalized World Economy," IMF Working Papers 03/246, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Bruno, Giovanni S.F., 2005. "Approximating the bias of the LSDV estimator for dynamic unbalanced panel data models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 87(3), pages 361-366, June.
  7. Çigdem Akin & M. Ayhan Kose, 2007. "Changing Nature of North-South Linkages," IMF Working Papers 07/280, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Michael A. Kouparitsas, 1996. "North-South business cycles," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues WP-96-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  9. International Monetary Fund, 2009. "Decoupling From the East toward the West? Analyses of Spillovers to the Baltic Countries," IMF Working Papers 09/125, International Monetary Fund.
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Cited by:
  1. Era Dabla-Norris & Raphael Espinoza & Sarwat Jahan, 2012. "Spillovers to Low-Income Countries: Importance of systemic emerging markets," OxCarre Working Papers 082, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
  2. Era Dabla-Norris & Raphael A. Espinoza & Sarwat Jahan, 2012. "Spillovers to Low-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 12/49, International Monetary Fund.

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