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The Value of Institutions for Financial Markets: Evidence from Emerging Markets

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Author Info
Thomas Stratmann
Bernardin Akitoby

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Abstract

This paper investigates the value of political institutions for financial markets, using panel data from emerging market countries. We test the hypothesis that changes in political institutions, such as improvements in democratic rights and increased government accountability, have a direct effect on sovereign interest rate spreads. We find that financial markets value institutions over and above the economic and fiscal outcomes these institutions shape. Democracy and accountability generally lower sovereign spreads, political risk tends to increase them, and financial markets tend to view election years negatively.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 09/27.

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Length: 21 pages
Date of creation: 12 Feb 2009
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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:09/27

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Keywords: Capital markets ; Financial sector ; Political economy ; Governance ; Social policy ; Emerging markets ; Cross country analysis ; Economic models ;

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  3. Persson, Torsten & Tabellini, Guido, 2001. "Political Institutions and Policy Outcomes: What are the Stylized Facts?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2872, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. North, Douglass C. & Weingast, Barry R., 1989. "Constitutions and Commitment: The Evolution of Institutions Governing Public Choice in Seventeenth-Century England," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 49(04), pages 803-832, December. [Downloadable!]
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  6. R. Gaston Gelos, Ratna Sahay and Guido Sandleris, 2008. "Sovereign Borrowing by Developing Countries: What Determines Market Access?," Business School Working Papers 2008-02, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Fatas, Antonio & Mihov, Ilian, 2001. "Government size and automatic stabilizers: international and intranational evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 3-28, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Alesina, Alberto & Wacziarg, Romain, 1998. "Openness, country size and government," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 305-321, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Mauro, Paolo, 1995. "Corruption and Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(3), pages 681-712, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization Of The Dynamic Effects Of Changes In Government Spending And Taxes On Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Paolo Manasse & Nouriel Roubini, 2005. "'Rules of Thumb' for Sovereign Debt Crises," International Finance 0509003, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Sebastian Edwards, 1986. "The Pricing of Bonds and Bank Loans in International Markets: An Empirical Analysis of Developing Countries' Foreign Borrowing," NBER Working Papers 1689, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Alberto Alesina & Silvia Ardagna & Roberto Perotti & Fabio Schiantarelli, 2002. "Fiscal Policy, Profits, and Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(3), pages 571-589, June. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Bernardin Akitoby & Thomas Stratmann, 2008. "Fiscal Policy and Financial Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(533), pages 1971-1985, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. W. J. Henisz, 2000. "The Institutional Environment for Economic Growth," Economics and Politics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 12(1), pages 1-31, 03. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Sebastian Edwards, 1984. "LDC's Foreign Borrowing and Default Risk: An Empirical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 1172, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Bayoumi, Tamim & Goldstein, Morris & Woglom, Geoffrey, 1995. "Do Credit Markets Discipline Sovereign Borrowers? Evidence from US States," CEPR Discussion Papers 1088, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Reinhart, Carmen M., 2000. "On crises, contagion, and confusion," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 145-168, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Acemoglu, Daron & Johnson, Simon & Robinson, James A., 2005. "Institutions as a Fundamental Cause of Long-Run Growth," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 6, pages 385-472 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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