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Macroeconomic Patterns and Monetary Policy in the Run-Up to Asset Price Busts

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Author Info

  • Alasdair Scott
  • Pau Rabanal
  • Prakash Kannan

Abstract

We find that inflation, output and the stance of monetary policy do not typically display unusual behavior ahead of asset price busts. By contrast, credit, shares of investment in GDP, current account deficits, and asset prices typically rise, providing useful, if not perfect, leading indicators of asset price busts. These patterns could also be observed in the build-up to the current crisis. Monetary policy was not the main, systematic cause of the current crisis. But, with inflation typically under control, central banks effectively accommodated these growing imbalances, raising the risk of damaging busts.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 09/252.

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Length: 39
Date of creation: 01 Nov 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:09/252

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Related research

Keywords: Asset prices; Credit; Monetary policy; Credit expansion; Housing prices; Price increases; Stock prices; inflation; monetary fund; monetary conditions; central bank; loose monetary policy; real rates; monetary policy decisions; price stability; inflation-targeting; price inflation; real interest rates; real rate of interest; economic instability; inflation forecasts; monetary stability; inflationary pressure; inflation rates;

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References

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  1. Luca Gambetti & Jordi Gal�, 2009. "On the Sources of the Great Moderation," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 26-57, January.
  2. Claudio Borio & Ilhyock Shim, 2007. "What can (macro-)prudential policy do to support monetary policy?," BIS Working Papers 242, Bank for International Settlements.
  3. Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez Quiros, 1997. "Output fluctuations in the United States: what has changed since the early 1980s?," Research Paper 9735, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
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  5. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: an empirical treatment," International Finance Discussion Papers 534, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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  7. Michael D. Bordo & Olivier Jeanne, 2002. "Boom-Busts in Asset Prices, Economic Instability, and Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 8966, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Gian Maria Milesi Ferretti & Assaf Razin, 2000. "Current Account Reversals and Currency Crises: Empirical Regularities," NBER Chapters, in: Currency Crises, pages 285-323 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Kannan Prakash & Rabanal Pau & Scott Alasdair M., 2012. "Monetary and Macroprudential Policy Rules in a Model with House Price Booms," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-44, June.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Itai Agur & Maria Demertzis, 2013. "Leaning Against the Wind and the Timing of Monetary Policy," IMF Working Papers 13/86, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Agur, I. & Demertzis, M., 2010. "Monetary Policy and Excessive Bank Risk Taking," Discussion Paper 2010-30S, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  3. Paul De Grauwe, 2012. "A Fragile Eurozone in Search of a Better Governance," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 43(1), pages 1–30.
  4. Paul Bloxham & Christopher Kent & Michael Robson, 2011. "Asset Prices, Credit Growth, Monetary and Other Policies: An Australian Case Study," NBER Working Papers 16845, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Agur, Itai & Demertzis, Maria, 2012. "Excessive bank risk taking and monetary policy," Working Paper Series 1457, European Central Bank.
  6. D. Filiz Unsal, 2011. "Capital Flows and Financial Stability," IMF Working Papers 11/189, International Monetary Fund.
  7. De Grauwe, Paul, 2012. "The Governance of a Fragile Eurozone," Walter Adolf Jöhr Lecture 2012, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science, Institute of Economics (FGN-HSG).
  8. De Grauwe, Paul, 2011. "Governance of a Fragile Eurozone," CEPS Papers 5523, Centre for European Policy Studies.
  9. D. Filiz Unsal, 2013. "Capital Flows and Financial Stability: Monetary Policy and Macroprudential Responses," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(1), pages 233-285, March.

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