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Fiscal Deficits and Current Account Deficits

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Author Info

  • Michael Kumhof
  • Douglas Laxton

Abstract

The effectiveness of recent fiscal stimulus packages significantly depends on the assumption of non-Ricardian savings behavior. We show that, under the same assumption, fiscal deficits can have worrisome implications if they turn out to be permanent. First, if they occur in large countries they significantly raise the world real interest rate. Second, they cause a short run current account deterioration equal to around 50 percent of the fiscal deficit deterioration. Third, the longer run current account deterioration equals almost 75 percent for a large economy such as the United States, and almost 100 percent for a small open economy.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 09/237.

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Length: 29
Date of creation: 01 Oct 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:09/237

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Related research

Keywords: Budget deficits; Economic models; Fiscal sustainability; Gross domestic product; Public debt; Savings;

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References

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  1. Hamid Faruqee & Douglas Laxton & Dirk Muir & Paolo A. Pesenti, 2007. "Smooth Landing or Crash? Model-Based Scenarios of Global Current Account Rebalancing," NBER Chapters, in: G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, pages 377-456 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Matthieu Bussière & Marcel Fratzscher & Gernot J. Müller, 2005. "Productivity shocks, budget deficits and the current account," Working Paper Series 509, European Central Bank.
  3. Ghironi, Fabio, 2006. "Macroeconomic interdependence under incomplete markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 428-450, December.
  4. Thomas Laubach, 2009. "New Evidence on the Interest Rate Effects of Budget Deficits and Debt," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(4), pages 858-885, 06.
  5. Christopher Erceg & Luca Guerrieri, 2005. "Expansionary Fiscal Shocks and the Trade Deficit," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 128, Society for Computational Economics.
  6. Douglas Laxton & Michael Kumhof, 2007. "A Party without a Hangover? On the Effects of U.S. Government Deficits," 2007 Meeting Papers 676, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  7. Giovanni Ganelli, 2002. "The New Open Economy Macroeconomics of Government Debt," Trinity Economics Papers 200214, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
  8. Erceg, Christopher & Guerriei, Luca & Gust, Christopher, 2006. "SIGMA: A New Open Economy Model for Policy Analysis," MPRA Paper 813, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Silvia Sgherri & Tamim Bayoumi, 2006. "Mr. Ricardo's Great Adventure: Estimating Fiscal Multipliers in a Truly Intertemporal Model," IMF Working Papers 06/168, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Fabio Ghironi, 2000. "Understanding Macroeconomic Interdependence: Do We Really Need to Shut Off the Current Account?," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 465, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 14 Aug 2003.
  11. Philip R. Lane & Giovanni Ganelli, 2002. "Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis: The Open Economy Dimension," Trinity Economics Papers 200212, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Vanda Almeida & Gabriela Castro & Ricardo Félix, 2010. "Improving competition in the non-tradable goods and labour markets: the Portuguese case," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 163-193, December.
  2. Freedman, Charles & Kumhof, Michael & Laxton, Douglas & Muir, Dirk & Mursula, Susanna, 2010. "Global effects of fiscal stimulus during the crisis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(5), pages 506-526, July.
  3. G�nter Coenen & Christopher J. Erceg & Charles Freedman & Davide Furceri & Michael Kumhof & Ren� Lalonde & Douglas Laxton & Jesper Lind� & Annabelle Mourougane & Dirk Muir & Susanna Mursula & Ca, 2012. "Effects of Fiscal Stimulus in Structural Models," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 22-68, January.
  4. Werner Schule, 2010. "The Potential Contribution of Fiscal Policy to Rebalancing and Growth in New Zealand," IMF Working Papers 10/128, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Ali Abbas, S.M. & Bouhga-Hagbe, Jacques & Fatás, Antonio & Mauro, Paolo & Velloso, Ricardo C., 2010. "Fiscal Policy and the Current Account," CEPR Discussion Papers 7859, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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