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Global Market Conditions and Systemic Risk

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Author Info

  • Brenda González-Hermosillo
  • Heiko Hesse

Abstract

This paper examines several key global market conditions, such as a proxy for market uncertainty and measures of interbank funding stress, to assess financial volatility and the likelihood of crisis. Using Markov regime-switching techniques, it shows that the Lehman Brothers failure was a watershed event in the crisis, although signs of heightened systemic risk could be detected as early as February 2007. In addition, we analyze the role of global market conditions to help determine when governments should begin to exit their extraordinary public support measures.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 09/230.

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Length: 22
Date of creation: 01 Oct 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:09/230

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Related research

Keywords: Emerging markets; Banking sector; Central bank policy; Currency swaps; Developing countries; Economic models; Financial risk; Financial systems; Nonbank financial sector; Risk management;

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

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  1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
  2. Daniel C. Hardy & Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, 1999. "Determinants and Leading Indicators of Banking Crises: Further Evidence," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(3), pages 1.
  3. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 1998. "The Determinants of Banking Crises in Developing and Developed Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 81-109, March.
  4. Lasse Heje Pederson & Markus K Brunnermeier, 2007. "Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity," FMG Discussion Papers dp580, Financial Markets Group.
  5. Illing, Mark & Liu, Ying, 2006. "Measuring financial stress in a developed country: An application to Canada," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 243-265, October.
  6. International Monetary Fund, 2009. "How to Stop a Herd of Running Bears? Market Response to Policy Initiatives during the Global Financial Crisis," IMF Working Papers 09/204, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Hamilton, James D. & Susmel, Raul, 1994. "Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity and changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 307-333.
  8. Heiko Hesse & Nathaniel Frank & Brenda González-Hermosillo, 2008. "Transmission of Liquidity Shocks: Evidence from the 2007 Subprime Crisis," IMF Working Papers 08/200, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Nathaniel Frank & Heiko Hesse, 2009. "Financial Spillovers to Emerging Markets during the Global Financial Crisis," IMF Working Papers 09/104, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Dornbusch, Rudiger & Park, Yung Chul & Claessens, Stijn, 2000. "Contagion: Understanding How It Spreads," World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 15(2), pages 177-97, August.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Eugenio Cerutti & Patrick M. McGuire & Stijn Claessens, 2011. "Systemic Risks in Global Banking: What Available Data can tell us and What More Data are Needed?," IMF Working Papers 11/222, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Naohiko Baba & Ilhyock Shim, 2011. "Dislocations in the won-dollar swap markets during the crisis of 2007-09," BIS Working Papers 344, Bank for International Settlements.
  3. Bong-Han Kim & Hyeongwoo Kim & Bong-Soo Lee, 2012. "Spillover Effects of the U.S. Financial Crisis on Financial Markets in Emerging Asian Countries," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2012-06, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
  4. Sari, Ramazan & Soytas, Ugur & Hacihasanoglu, Erk, 2011. "Do global risk perceptions influence world oil prices?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 515-524, May.
  5. Gilles Dufrénot & Valérie Mignon & Anne Peguin-Feissolle, 2011. "The Effects of the Subprime Crisis on the Latin American Financial Markets: An Empirical Assessment," Working Papers halshs-00587460, HAL.
  6. Eugenio Cerutti & Stijn Claessens & Patrick McGuire, 2012. "Systemic risk in global banking: what can available data tell us and what more data are needed?," BIS Working Papers 376, Bank for International Settlements.
  7. Rainer Masera, 2011. "Taking the moral hazard out of banking: the next fundamental step in financial reform," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 64(257), pages 105-142.

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