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Monetary and Fiscal Rules in an Emerging Small Open Economy

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Author Info
Nicoletta Batini
Paul Levine
Joseph Pearlman

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Abstract

We develop a optimal rules-based interpretation of the 'three pillars macroeconomic policy framework': a combination of a freely floating exchange rate, an explicit target for inflation, and a mechanism than ensures a stable government debt-GDP ratio around a specified long run. We show how such monetary-fiscal rules need to be adjusted to accommodate specific features of emerging market economies. The model takes the form of two-blocs, a DSGE emerging small open economy interacting with the rest of the world and features, in particular, financial frictions It is calibrated using Chile and US data. Alongside the optimal Ramsey policy benchmark, we model the three pillars as simple monetary and fiscal rules including and both domestic and CPI inflation targeting interest rate rules alongside a 'Structural Surplus Fiscal Rule' as followed recently in Chile. A comparison with a fixed exchange rate regime is made. We find that domestic inflation targeting is superior to partially or implicitly (through a CPI inflation target) or fully attempting to stabilizing the exchange rate. Financial frictions require fiscal policy to play a bigger role and lead to an increase in the costs associated with simple rules as opposed to the fully optimal policy.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 09/22.

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Length: 78 pages
Date of creation: 06 Feb 2009
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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:09/22

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Keywords: Emerging markets ; External shocks ; Monetary policy ; Interest rate policy ; Fiscal policy ; Economic models ;

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  4. Paul Levine & Peter McAdam & Joseph Pearlman, 2007. "Quantifying and sustaining welfare gains from monetary commitment," Working Paper Series 709, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Chadha, Jagjit S. & Nolan, Charles, 2007. "Optimal simple rules for the conduct of monetary and fiscal policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 665-689, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Juan Pablo Medina & Claudio Soto, 2007. "Copper Price, Fiscal Policu and Business Cycle in Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 458, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  7. Luis Felipe Céspedes & Roberto Chang & Andrés Velasco, 2004. "Balance Sheets and Exchange Rate Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 1183-1193, September. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Simon Gilchrist & Jean-Olivier Hairault & Hubert Kempf, 2002. "Monetary policy and the financial accelerator in a monetary union," International Finance Discussion Papers 750, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  15. Levine, Paul & Currie, David, 1987. "The design of feedback rules in linear stochastic rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 1-28, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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