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The Drivers of Housing Cycles in Spain

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  • Pau Rabanal
  • Oriol Aspachs-Bracons

Abstract

Since Spain joined the EMU, two main important factors behind the housing boom appear to be the decrease of nominal interest rates and demographic factors. In this paper we estimate a New Keynesian model of a currency area, using data for Spain and the rest of the EMU to study the importance of those factors. We also examine the role of different rigidities and find that labor market frictions are crucial to explain main features of the data. On the other hand, financial frictions that impose a collateral constraint on borrowing do not appear to be relevant.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 09/203.

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Length: 25
Date of creation: 01 Sep 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:09/203

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Related research

Keywords: Housing; Economic models; European Union; Household credit; Housing prices; Labor markets; Private consumption; Private investment; Private savings;

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References

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  1. Aoki, Kosuke & James Proudman & Gertjan Vlieghe, 2003. "House prices, consumption, and monetary policy: a financial accelerator approach," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 7, Royal Economic Society.
  2. Mark Bils & Peter J. Klenow, 2004. "Some Evidence on the Importance of Sticky Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(5), pages 947-985, October.
  3. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393 Elsevier.
  4. Pau Rabanal & Oriol Aspachs-Bracons, 2011. "The Effects of Housing Prices and Monetary Policy in a Currency Union," IMF Working Papers 11/6, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Philip R. Lane & Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2001. "Long-Term Capital Movements," IMF Working Papers 01/107, International Monetary Fund.
    • Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2002. "Long-Term Capital Movements," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, Volume 16, pages 73-136 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2001. "Closing Small Open Economy Models," Departmental Working Papers 200115, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  7. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1987. "International real business cycles," Working Papers 426, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  8. Matteo Iacoviello, 2002. "House prices, borrowing constraints and monetary policy in the business cycle," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 542, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 06 Dec 2004.
  9. Edward E. Leamer, 2007. "Housing is the business cycle," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 149-233.
  10. Pau Rabanal & Juan Francisco Rubio-Ramirez, 2003. "Comparing New Keynesian models in the Euro area: a Bayesian approach," Working Paper 2003-30, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  11. An, Sungbae & Schorfheide, Frank, 2005. "Bayesian Analysis of DSGE Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 5207, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2001. "Nominal rigidities and the dynamic effects of a shock to monetary policy," Working Paper Series WP-01-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  13. Jean Imbs & Isabelle Mˆmjean, 2008. "Elasticity Optimism," Working Papers 242008, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  14. Matthieu Darracq Pariès & Alessandro Notarpietro, 2008. "Monetary policy and housing prices in an estimated DSGE model for the US and the euro area," Working Paper Series 972, European Central Bank.
  15. Fernandez-Villaverde, Jesus & Francisco Rubio-Ramirez, Juan, 2004. "Comparing dynamic equilibrium models to data: a Bayesian approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 123(1), pages 153-187, November.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Pau Rabanal & Oriol Aspachs-Bracons, 2011. "The Effects of Housing Prices and Monetary Policy in a Currency Union," IMF Working Papers 11/6, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Luis J. Álvarez & Alberto Cabrero, 2010. "Does housing really lead the business cycle?," Banco de España Working Papers 1024, Banco de España.
  3. Gareis, Johannes & Mayer, Eric, 2012. "Financial market heterogeneity: Implications for the EMU," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 90, University of Würzburg, Chair for Monetary Policy and International Economics.
  4. Gete, Pedro, 2009. "Housing Markets and Current Account Dynamics," MPRA Paper 20957, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 24 Feb 2010.
  5. Gareis, Johannes & Mayer, Eric, 2012. "What drives Ireland's housing market? A Bayesian DSGE approach," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 88, University of Würzburg, Chair for Monetary Policy and International Economics.
  6. Javier Andrés & Samuel Hurtado & Eva Ortega & Carlos Thomas, 2009. "Spain in the euro: a general equilibrium analysis," Banco de España Working Papers 0927, Banco de España.
  7. Gabriele Galati & Federica Teppa & Rob Alessie, 2011. "Macro and micro drivers of house price dynamics: An application to Dutch data," DNB Working Papers 288, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  8. Nikolay Hristov & Oliver Hülsewig & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2010. "Financial Frictions and Inflation Differentials in a Monetary Union," CESifo Working Paper Series 3235, CESifo Group Munich.

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  1. Wirtschaft Spaniens in Wikipedia (German)

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