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The Real Effects of Financial Sector Risk

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Author Info

  • Andrea M. Maechler
  • Alexander F. Tieman

Abstract

This paper estimates the magnitude of key effects on the real economy from financial sector stress. We focus on the short-run feedback effect from market-based indicators of financial sector risk to the real economy through the credit channel, and estimate this effect on an economy-wide (macro) level, as well as on the level of individual large banks. Both estimates yield significant feedback effects of substantial magnitude. The estimates are consistent with other work in this area. Our results suggest that prudential supervision could be enhanced by taking into account the feedback effects of financial instability in the real economy. We also propose a way to integrate feedback effects into stress tests in order to improve realism and accuracy or macroeconomic stress scenarios, as well as a metric to interpret stress testing results.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 09/198.

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Length: 32
Date of creation: 01 Sep 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:09/198

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Related research

Keywords: Banks; Credit expansion; Economic models; European Union; Financial risk; Financial stability; financial sector; regression results; panel regression; regression equation; financial institutions; international financial statistics; stock market; financial system; panel regressions; regression model; financial markets; error-correction model; stock price; financial instability; regression equations; financial fragility; moral hazard; stock market indices; regression analysis; currency devaluations; currency crises; regression tables; stock exchange; stock index; financial systems; regression models; stock exchange indices;

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References

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  1. Ben S. Bernanke, 1983. "Non-Monetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the Propagation of the Great Depression," NBER Working Papers 1054, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
  3. Yener Altunbas & Leonardo Gambacorta & David Marques, 2008. "Securitization and the bank lending channel," Proceedings 1101, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  4. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 27-48, Fall.
  5. Merton, Robert C., 1973. "On the pricing of corporate debt: the risk structure of interest rates," Working papers 684-73., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  6. Tamim Bayoumi & Andrew Swiston, 2007. "Foreign Entanglements," IMF Working Papers 07/182, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Angeloni, Ignazio & Ehrmann, Michael, 2003. "Monetary policy transmission in the euro area: any changes after EMU?," Working Paper Series 0240, European Central Bank.
  8. Altunbas, Yener & Fazylov, Otabek & Molyneux, Philip, 2002. "Evidence on the bank lending channel in Europe," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(11), pages 2093-2110, November.
  9. Raphael Espinoza & Fabio Fornari & Marco J. Lombardi, 2012. "The Role of Financial Variables in predicting economic activity," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(1), pages 15-46, 01.
  10. Maria Vassalou & Yuhang Xing, 2004. "Default Risk in Equity Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(2), pages 831-868, 04.
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Cited by:
  1. de Bondt, Gabe & Maddaloni, Angela & Peydró, José-Luis & Scopel, Silvia, 2010. "The euro area Bank Lending Survey matters: empirical evidence for credit and output growth," Working Paper Series 1160, European Central Bank.
  2. Mark Swinburne & Stéphanie Marie Stolz & Marina Moretti, 2008. "Stress Testing At the IMF," IMF Working Papers 08/206, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Casu, Barbara & Clare, Andrew & Saleh, Nashwa, 2011. "Towards a new model for early warning signals for systemic financial fragility and near crises: an application to OECD countries," MPRA Paper 37043, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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