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How Good Are Ex Ante Program Evaluation Techniques? The Case of School Enrollment in PROGRESA

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Author Info
Fabian Bornhorst

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Abstract

This paper evaluates a microsimulation technique by comparing the simulated outcome of a program with its actual effect. The ex ante evaluation is carried out for a conditional cash transfer program, where poor households were given money if the children attended school. A model of occupational choice is used to simulate the expected impact of the program. The results suggest that the transfer would indeed increase school attendance and do more so among girls than boys. While the simulated effect tends to be larger than the actual effect, the latter lies within bootstrapped confidence intervals of the simulation.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 09/187.

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Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: 02 Sep 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:09/187

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Related research
Keywords: Economic models ; Education ; Human capital ; Income ; Labor markets ; Labor productivity ; Labor supply ; Mexico ; Payment systems ; Poverty reduction ; Private sector ; Social policy ;

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  1. Lee, Lung-Fei, 1983. "Generalized Econometric Models with Selectivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(2), pages 507-12, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Heckman, James J, 1979. "Sample Selection Bias as a Specification Error," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(1), pages 153-61, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. LaLonde, Robert J, 1986. "Evaluating the Econometric Evaluations of Training Programs with Experimental Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(4), pages 604-20, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-20.

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