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How Good Are Ex Ante Program Evaluation Techniques? the Case of School Enrollment in PROGRESA

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Author Info

  • Fabian Bornhorst

Abstract

This paper evaluates a microsimulation technique by comparing the simulated outcome of a program with its actual effect. The ex ante evaluation is carried out for a conditional cash transfer program, where poor households were given money if the children attended school. A model of occupational choice is used to simulate the expected impact of the program. The results suggest that the transfer would indeed increase school attendance and do more so among girls than boys. While the simulated effect tends to be larger than the actual effect, the latter lies within bootstrapped confidence intervals of the simulation.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 09/187.

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Length: 35
Date of creation: 01 Sep 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:09/187

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Related research

Keywords: Economic models; Human capital; Income; Labor markets; Labor productivity; Labor supply; Payment systems; Poverty reduction; child labor; schooling; enrollment ratio; school attendance; school enrollment; enrolment; family members; parental education; educational attainment; peer group; educational grant; older children; educational opportunities; secondary education; psychological health; child care; formal labor market; educated children;

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References

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  1. Bourguignon, Francois & Ferreira, Francisco H. G. & Leite, Phillippe G., 2002. "Ex-ante evaluation of conditional cash transfer programs: the case of bolsa escola," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2916, The World Bank.
  2. Heckman, James, 2013. "Sample selection bias as a specification error," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 31(3), pages 129-137.
  3. François Bourguignon & Martin Fournier & Marc Gurgand, 2002. "Selection Bias Correction Based on the Multinomial Logit Model," Working Papers 2002-04, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
  4. Lee, Lung-Fei, 1983. "Generalized Econometric Models with Selectivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(2), pages 507-12, March.
  5. LaLonde, Robert J, 1986. "Evaluating the Econometric Evaluations of Training Programs with Experimental Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(4), pages 604-20, September.
  6. Behrman, Jere R & Sengupta, Piyali & Todd, Petra, 2005. "Progressing through PROGRESA: An Impact Assessment of a School Subsidy Experiment in Rural Mexico," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(1), pages 237-75, October.
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Citations

Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Program evaluation: estimation vs. simulation
    by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2009-11-10 15:14:00
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Cited by:
  1. Yáñez, Ernesto, 2012. "El impacto del Bono Juancito Pinto. Un análisis a partir de microsimulaciones," Revista Latinoamericana de Desarrollo Economico, Instituto de Investigaciones Socio-Económicas (IISEC), Universidad Católica Boliviana, issue 17, pages 75-112, Mayo.

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  1. Economic Logic blog

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