How Good Are Ex Ante Program Evaluation Techniques? The Case of School Enrollment in PROGRESA
AbstractThis paper evaluates a microsimulation technique by comparing the simulated outcome of a program with its actual effect. The ex ante evaluation is carried out for a conditional cash transfer program, where poor households were given money if the children attended school. A model of occupational choice is used to simulate the expected impact of the program. The results suggest that the transfer would indeed increase school attendance and do more so among girls than boys. While the simulated effect tends to be larger than the actual effect, the latter lies within bootstrapped confidence intervals of the simulation.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 09/187.
Date of creation: 01 Sep 2009
Date of revision:
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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2009-10-10 (All new papers)
- NEP-CMP-2009-10-10 (Computational Economics)
- NEP-DEV-2009-10-10 (Development)
- NEP-LAB-2009-10-10 (Labour Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series
516, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
- Bourguignon, Francois & Ferreira, Francisco H. G. & Leite, Phillippe G., 2002. "Ex-ante evaluation of conditional cash transfer programs: the case of bolsa escola," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2916, The World Bank.
- Behrman, Jere R & Sengupta, Piyali & Todd, Petra, 2005. "Progressing through PROGRESA: An Impact Assessment of a School Subsidy Experiment in Rural Mexico," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(1), pages 237-75, October.
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- François Bourguignon & Martin Fournier & Marc Gurgand, 2002. "Selection Bias Correction Based on the Multinomial Logit Model," Working Papers 2002-04, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
- Lee, Lung-Fei, 1983. "Generalized Econometric Models with Selectivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(2), pages 507-12, March.
Blog mentionsAs found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
- Program evaluation: estimation vs. simulation
by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2009-11-10 15:14:00
- Yáñez, Ernesto, 2012. "El impacto del Bono Juancito Pinto. Un análisis a partir de microsimulaciones," Revista Latinoamericana de Desarrollo Economico, Instituto de Investigaciones Socio-Económicas (IISEC), Universidad Católica Boliviana, issue 17, pages 75-112, Mayo.
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