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Incorporating Market Information Into the Construction of the Fan Chart

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Author Info

  • Prakash Kannan
  • Selim Elekdag

Abstract

This paper develops a simple procedure for incorporating market-based information into the construction of fan charts. Using the International Monetary Fund (IMF)''s global growth forecast as a working example, the paper goes through the theoretical and practical considerations of this new approach. The resulting spreadsheet, which implements the approach, is available upon request from the authors.

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File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=23210
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 09/178.

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Length: 21
Date of creation: 01 Aug 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:09/178

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Postal: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA
Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
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Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
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Related research

Keywords: Data analysis; Economic forecasting; Economic growth; Economic models; Forecasting models; Markets; World Economic Outlook; risk factors; survey; skewness; normal distribution; equation; confidence intervals; risk factor; forecasting; equations; probability; confidence interval; covariance; surveys; standard deviation; probability density; econometrics; central tendency; regression analysis; univariate distributions; linear trend; general equilibrium models; time series; probability distributions; cumulative distribution function; probability density function; standard deviations; normal distributions; quadratic equation; computation; statistics; lognormal distributions; error variance;

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

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  1. Thomas B. King & Andrew T. Levin & Roberto Perli, 2007. "Financial market perceptions of recession risk," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-57, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  2. Ait-Sahalia, Yacine & Duarte, Jefferson, 2003. "Nonparametric option pricing under shape restrictions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1-2), pages 9-47.
  3. Alessandro Prati & Massimo Sbracia, 2002. "Currency crises and uncertainty about fundamentals," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 446, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  4. Subir Lall & Roberto Cardarelli & Selim Elekdag, 2009. "Financial Stress, Downturns, and Recoveries," IMF Working Papers 09/100, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Anthony Tay & Kenneth F. Wallis, 2000. "Density Forecasting: A Survey," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0370, Econometric Society.
  6. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1996. "The yield curve as a predictor of U.S. recessions," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 2(Jun).
  7. Breeden, Douglas T & Litzenberger, Robert H, 1978. "Prices of State-contingent Claims Implicit in Option Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(4), pages 621-51, October.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Michal Franta & Jozef Barunik & Roman Horvath & Katerina Smidkova, 2011. "Are Bayesian Fan Charts Useful for Central Banks? Uncertainty, Forecasting, and Financial Stability Stress Tests," Working Papers 2011/10, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  2. Knüppel, Malte & Schultefrankenfeld, Guido, 2011. "How informative are central bank assessments of macroeconomic risks?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2011,13, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  3. Michal Franta & Jozef Baruník & Roman Horváth & Katerina Smídková, 2014. "Are Bayesian Fan Charts Useful? The Effect of Zero Lower Bound and Evaluation of Financial Stability Stress Tests," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(1), pages 159-188, March.
  4. Maximiano Pinheiro & Paulo Esteves, 2012. "On the uncertainty and risks of macroeconomic forecasts: combining judgements with sample and model information," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 639-665, June.

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