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Fiscal Vulnerability and Sustainability in Oil-Producing Sub-Saharan African Countries


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  • Zaijin Zhan
  • Robert C. York
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    Over many years rises and fall of world oil prices have been repeatedly reflected in the boom-bust cycles in oil-exporting countries the world over. The recent spectacular rise and equally spectacular fall in prices provides an opportunity to inquire whether anything is different this time. In this paper we limit the analysis to the experience, outlook, and longterm fiscal policy considerations for eight of the world''s oil-producing countries in sub- Saharan Africa. Because we are interested in gauging their fiscal vulnerability and sustainability from the angle of managing exhaustible oil wealth, we focus on the non-oil primary balance as the relevant indicator of how initial conditions and resource endowments can influence long-term considerations in several different models of fiscal rules.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 09/174.

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    Length: 40
    Date of creation: 01 Aug 2009
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:09/174

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    Postal: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA
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    Keywords: Economic growth; Fiscal sustainability; National income; Oil prices; Oil producing countries; Oil production; Oil revenues; Oil sector; primary deficit; oil-producing countries; fiscal policy; oil reserves; fiscal rules; world oil prices; fiscal stance; government spending; gas reserves; fiscal position; fiscal rule; fiscal institutions; long-term fiscal sustainability; fiscal balance; crude oil; oil producers; oil and gas; fiscal vulnerability; fiscal adjustment; fiscal positions; fiscal responsibility; oil producing; fiscal policies; oil resources; government expenditure; natural gas; tax rates; fiscal deficit; cyclical fiscal policy; budget constraint; fiscal deficits; fiscal space; primary budget balance; opec; public debt; fiscal strategies; average oil price; fiscal stimulus; budget balance; fiscal policy formulation; fiscal expansion; tax administration; oil exports; government revenue; fiscally sustainable; fiscal agent; fiscal surplus; probable reserves; production level; budgetary process; tax base; petroleum resources; sustainable fiscal policy; renewable resources; fiscal policy responses; primary fiscal balance; budget deficits; fiscal outlook; gas deposits; fiscal expenditure; fiscal stimulus package; crude oil price; state budget; revenue collection; primary fiscal deficit; fiscal adjustments; natural gas reserves; public finances; fiscal prudence; energy information administration; economic stability; primary expenditure; annual budgets; fiscal surpluses; tax system; fiscal developments; natural gas deposits; geological survey; aggregate demand; gas production; tax reform; tax policy;

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