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Is China's Export-Oriented Growth Sustainable?

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Author Info

  • Kai Guo
  • Papa N'Diaye
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Abstract

This paper assesses the sustainability of China''s export-oriented growth over the medium to longer term. It shows that maintaining the current export-oriented growth would require significant gains in market share through lower prices in a range of industries. This, in turn, could be achieved through a combination of increases in productivity, lower profits, and higher implicit or explicit subsidies to industry. However, the evidence suggest that it will prove difficult to accommodate such price reductions within existing profit margins or through productivity gains. Moving up the value-added chain, shifting the composition of exports, diversifying the export base, and increasing domestic value added of exports could give room to further export expansion. However, experiences from Asian economies that had similar export-oriented growth suggest there are limits to the global market share a country can occupy. Rebalancing growth toward private consumption would provide a large impetus to output growth and reduce the need for gaining further market share.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 09/172.

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Length: 21
Date of creation: 01 Aug 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:09/172

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Related research

Keywords: Economic growth; Export markets; Export performance; Export prices; Export sector; Fiscal reforms; Global competitiveness; Industrial sector; Private consumption; Productivity; export growth; world demand; net exports; export expansion; export industries; export sectors; total exports; export diversification; world growth; output growth; global market; global markets; world exports; world prices; import demand; import substitution; oil prices; world trade; current account surplus; world output; export demand; export price; export base; export structure; global trade; domestic demand; supply chain; vertical specialization; world economy; exporter; political economy; trading partners; world markets; current account balance; increasing trade; tax incentives; real exports; expansion of exports; world market; internal market; regional trade; domestic market; tradable goods; exporters;

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Cited by:
  1. Bonatti, Luigi & Fracasso, Andrea, 2013. "Regime switches in the Sino-American co-dependency: Growth and structural change in China," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 1-32.
  2. Thierry Apoteker, 2009. "La Chine : accélération des transformations et nouveaux défis," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 95(2), pages 207-228.
  3. Pula, Gabor & Santabárbara, Daniel, 2011. "Is China climbing up the quality ladder? Estimating cross country differences in product quality using Eurostat's COMEXT trade database," Working Paper Series 1310, European Central Bank.
  4. Brendan Coates & Dougal Horton & Lachlan McNamee, 2012. "China: prospects for export-driven growth," Economic Roundup, Treasury, Australian Government, issue 4, pages 79-102, December.
  5. Zhang, Bo & Chen, G.Q., 2010. "Methane emissions by Chinese economy: Inventory and embodiment analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4304-4316, August.

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