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Measures of Underlying Inflation in Sri Lanka

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Author Info

  • Souvik Gupta
  • Magnus Saxegaard

Abstract

During the first half of 2008, Sri Lanka witnessed significantly higher inflation than most other emerging Asian countries. Inflation has since declined amid declining world commodity prices and tight monetary policy. Given the sensitivity to global commodity prices, a core inflation measure could be useful for monetary policy. The purpose of this paper is to compare the performance of Sri Lanka''s existing official measure of core inflation against alternative measures. Our findings suggest that the existing measure does contain information about the future path of headline information, but may be inadequate as a communication tool for the Central Bank.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 09/167.

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Length: 22
Date of creation: 01 Aug 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:09/167

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Keywords: Central bank policy; Consumer price indexes; Economic models; Performance indicators; Price structures; inflation; monetary policy; central bank; monetary fund; aggregate demand; measure of inflation; price inflation; monetary authorities; inflation targeting; inflation rate; inflationary pressure; relative price; inflationary pressures; monetary phenomenon; real output; money supply; relative prices; price mechanism; price of goods; actual inflation; monetary transmission mechanism; inflation data; monetary transmission; inflation rates; increase in inflation; money growth; inflation target; tight monetary policy; rate of inflation;

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References

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  1. Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University 979, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  2. Carlos Robalo Marques & Pedro Duarte Neves & Luís Morais Sarmento, 2000. "Evaluating Core Inflation Indicators," Working Papers, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department w200003, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  3. Tiff Macklem, 2001. "A New Measure of Core Inflation," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, Bank of Canada, vol. 2001(Autumn), pages 3-12.
  4. Mark A. Wynne, 1999. "Core inflation: a review of some conceptual issues," Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas 9903, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  5. Thérèse Laflèche, 1997. "Statistical measures of the trend rate of inflation," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, Bank of Canada, vol. 1997(Autumn), pages 29-47.
  6. Freeman, Donald G., 1998. "Do core inflation measures help forecast inflation?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 143-147, February.
  7. Michael F. Bryan & Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1993. "The consumer price index as a measure of inflation," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q IV, pages 15-24.
  8. Mick Silver, 2007. "Core Inflation: Measurement and Statistical Issues in Choosing Among Alternative Measures," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 54(1), pages 163-190, May.
  9. Edimon Ginting, 2007. "Is Inflation in India An Attractor of Inflation in Nepal?," IMF Working Papers 07/269, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Danny Quah & Shaun Vahey, 1995. "Measuring Core Inflation," Bank of England working papers, Bank of England 31, Bank of England.
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Cited by:
  1. Muhammad Nadim Hanif & Muhammad Jahanzeb Malik & Javed Iqbal, 2012. "Intrinsic Inflation Persistence in a Developing Country," Working Papers id:5040, eSocialSciences.
  2. Ding Ding & John Nelmes & Roshan Perera & Volodymyr Tulin, 2014. "Estimating Sri Lanka’s Potential Output," IMF Working Papers 14/40, International Monetary Fund.

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