Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

The Effects of Economic Newson Commodity Prices

Contents:

Author Info

  • Shaun K. Roache
  • Marco Rossi
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    The paper uses an event study methodology to investigate which and how macroeconomic announcements affect commodity prices. Results show that gold is unique among commodities, with prices reacting to specific scheduled announcements in the United States and the Euro area (such as indicators of activity or interest rate decisions) in a manner consistent with gold''s traditional role as a safe-haven and store of value. Other commodity prices, where such news is significant, exhibit pro-cyclical sensitivities and these have risen somewhat as commodities have become increasingly financialized. These results are important for those trading in the commodity markets on a frequent basis and long-term market participants that take their decisions based on information on price fundamentals, which are reflected in the release of macroeconomic announcements.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=23068
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 09/140.

    as in new window
    Length: 28
    Date of creation: 01 Jul 2009
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:09/140

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA
    Phone: (202) 623-7000
    Fax: (202) 623-4661
    Email:
    Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
    More information through EDIRC

    Order Information:
    Web: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm

    Related research

    Keywords: Exchange rates; Announcements; Commodity markets; Commodity price fluctuations; Economic models; External shocks; Financial assets; gold; news; copper; silver; lead;

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Clara Vega, 2002. "Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange," NBER Working Papers 8959, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Hardouvelis, Gikas A, 1985. "Commodity Prices, Money Surprises and Fed Credibility," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 17(4), pages 425-38, November.
    3. Kilian, Lutz & Vega, Clara, 2008. "Do Energy Prices Respond to U.S. Macroeconomic News? A Test of the Hypothesis of Predetermined Energy Prices," CEPR Discussion Papers 7015, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Shaun K. Roache, 2008. "Commodities and the Market Price of Risk," IMF Working Papers 08/221, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Michael J. Fleming & Eli M. Remolona, 1999. "Price Formation and Liquidity in the U.S. Treasury Market: The Response to Public Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1901-1915, October.
    6. Marco Rossi, 1998. "Economic Announcements and the Timing of Public Debt Auctions," IMF Working Papers 98/44, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2004. "Exchange rates and fundamentals: new evidence from real-time data," Working Paper Series 0365, European Central Bank.
    8. Yu-chin Chen & Kenneth Rogoff & Barbara Rossi, 2008. "Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?," Working Papers UWEC-2008-11-FC, University of Washington, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2009.
    9. Jian Yang & R. Brian Balyeat & David J. Leatham, 2005. "Futures Trading Activity and Commodity Cash Price Volatility," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(1-2), pages 297-323.
    10. Gabriele Galati & Corrinne Ho, 2003. "Macroeconomic News and the Euro/Dollar Exchange Rate," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 32(3), pages 371-398, November.
    11. Kenneth W. Clements & Renee Fry, 2006. "Commodity Currencies and Currency Commodities," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 06-17, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    12. Kaul, Gautam, 1987. "Stock returns and inflation : The role of the monetary sector," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 253-276, June.
    13. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2008. "The Effect of Monetary Policy on Real Commodity Prices," NBER Chapters, in: Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, pages 291-333 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Dieter Hess & He Huang & Alexandra Niessen, 2008. "How do commodity futures respond to macroeconomic news?," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 127-146, June.
    15. Balduzzi, Pierluigi & Elton, Edwin J. & Green, T. Clifton, 2001. "Economic News and Bond Prices: Evidence from the U.S. Treasury Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(04), pages 523-543, December.
    16. Payne, Richard, 2003. "Informed trade in spot foreign exchange markets: an empirical investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 307-329, December.
    17. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 122-150, February.
    18. Asger Lunde & Peter Reinhard Hansen, 2001. "A Forecast Comparison of Volatility Models: Does Anything Beat a GARCH(1,1)?," Working Papers 2001-04, Brown University, Department of Economics.
    19. Hess, Dieter E. & Huang, He & Niessen-Ruenzi, Alexandra, 2008. "How do commodity futures respond to macroeconomic news?," CFR Working Papers 08-03, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    20. Christie-David, Rohan & Chaudhry, Mukesh & Koch, Timothy W., 2000. "Do macroeconomics news releases affect gold and silver prices?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(5), pages 405-421.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:09/140. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow) or (Hassan Zaidi).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.