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Decoupling From the East toward the West? Analyses of Spillovers to the Baltic Countries

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  • International Monetary Fund
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    Abstract

    This paper uses VAR models to examine the magnitude and sources of growth spillovers to the Baltics from key trading partners, as well asfrom the real effective exchange rate (REER). Our results show there are significant cross-country spillovers to the Baltics with those from the EU outweighing spillovers from Russia. Shocks to the REER generally depress growth in the Baltics, and this intensifies over time. We also find that financial and trade channels dominate the transmission of spillovers to the region which partly explains the realization of downside risks to the Baltics from the global slowdown.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 09/125.

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    Length: 38
    Date of creation: 01 Jun 2009
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:09/125

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    Related research

    Keywords: Spillovers; Baltics; Commodity prices; Economic models; European Union; External shocks; Real effective exchange rates; Regional shocks; Trade integration; gdp growth; trading partners; real gdp; growth rate; business cycles; gdp growth rate; growth rates; oil prices; business cycle; business cycle synchronization; gdp growth rates; net exports; trade partners; changes in trade; regional trade; import substitution; aggregate demand; trading partner; trading patterns; trade patterns; domestic demand; terms of trade; global shocks; business cycle dynamics; private consumption; trade in services; exporting countries; economic integration; tradable goods; trade expansion; gdp deflator; transmission of shocks; foreign trade; trade channels; export shares;

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    References

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    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    1. Vladimir Klyuev, 2008. "Real Implications of Financial Linkages Between Canada and the United States," IMF Working Papers 08/23, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Alicia Garcia-Herrero & Juan M. Ruiz, 2008. "Do Trade and Financial Linkages Foster Business cycle Synchronization in a small economy?," Working Papers 0801, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    3. Siem Jan Koopman & Jo�o Valle E Azevedo, 2008. "Measuring Synchronization and Convergence of Business Cycles for the Euro area, UK and US," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(1), pages 23-51, 02.
    4. Coe, David T & Helpman, Elhanan & Hoffmaister, Alexander, 2008. "International R&D Spillovers and Institutions," CEPR Discussion Papers 6882, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. P&aauml;r �sterholm & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2008. "The Effect of External Conditions on Growth in Latin America," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 55(4), pages 595-623, December.
    6. DeJong, David N, et al, 1992. "Integration versus Trend Stationarity in Time Series," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 423-33, March.
    7. Robert Inklaar & Richard Jong-A-Pin & Jakob de Haan, 2005. "Trade and Business Cycle Synchronization in OECD Countries - a Re-examination," CESifo Working Paper Series 1546, CESifo Group Munich.
    8. Victor Zarnowitz, 1992. "Business Cycles: Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number zarn92-1.
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    Cited by:
    1. Jaime Espinosa-Bowen & Nadeem Ilahi & Fahad Alturki, 2009. "How Russia Affects the Neighborhood," IMF Working Papers 09/277, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Zuzana Brixiova & Margaret H. Morgan & Andreas Wörgötter, 2010. "On The Road to Euro: How Synchronized Is Estonia with the Euro zone?," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 7(1), pages 203-227, June.

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