Estimating Default Frequencies and Macrofinancial Linkages in the Mexican Banking Sector
AbstractThe credit risk measures we develop in this paper are used to investigate macrofinancial linkages in the Mexican banking system. Domestic and external macro-financial variables are found to be closely associated with banking soundness. At the aggregate level, high external volatility and domestic interest rates are associated with higher expected default probability. Though results vary substantially across individual banks, domestic activity and U.S. growth, and higher asset prices, are generally associated with lower credit risks, while increased volatility worsens credit risks. The expected default probability is also found to be a leading indicator of traditional financial stability indicators.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 09/109.
Date of creation: 01 May 2009
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA
Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
More information through EDIRC
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2009-10-10 (All new papers)
- NEP-BAN-2009-10-10 (Banking)
- NEP-CBA-2009-10-10 (Central Banking)
- NEP-DEV-2009-10-10 (Development)
- NEP-RMG-2009-10-10 (Risk Management)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Marcos Souto & Benjamin M. Tabak & Francisco Vazquez, 2009. "Linking Financial and Macroeconomic Factors to Credit Risk Indicators of Brazilian Banks," Working Papers Series 189, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
- Robert C. Merton, 1973. "Theory of Rational Option Pricing," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 4(1), pages 141-183, Spring.
- Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991.
"Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS program to replicate Arellano-Bond 1991 dynamic panel," Statistical Software Components RTZ00169, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Saldías, Martín, 2013.
"Systemic risk analysis using forward-looking Distance-to-Default series,"
Journal of Financial Stability,
Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 498-517.
- Martín Saldías, 2012. "Systemic Risk Analysis using Forward-Looking Distance-to-Default Series," Working Papers w201216, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
- Martin Saldías Zambrana, 2010. "Systemic risk analysis using forward-looking distance-to-default series," Working Paper 1005, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow) or (Hassan Zaidi).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.