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The Persistence of Capital Account Crises

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  • Mauro Mecagni
  • Ruben Atoyan
  • David Hofman
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    Abstract

    This study contributes to the literature on capital account crises in two ways. First, our analysis of crisis episodes between 1994 and 2002 establishes a clear relationship between the persistence of crises, their complexity, and the intensity of movement of key macroeconomic variables. Second, we provide a systematic examination of the determinants of crisis duration. Our econometric analysis suggests that initial conditions and the external environment plays a key role in determining crisis persistence. The policy response also matters, but cannot offset a record of poor past policies. Overall, the results underscore the critical importance of crisis prevention efforts.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 09/103.

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    Length: 28
    Date of creation: 01 May 2009
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:09/103

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    Related research

    Keywords: Capital controls; Capital outflows; Data analysis; Economic models; Exchange rate regimes; External sector; capital account crises; capital account; capital flows; private capital flows; current account; current account balance; capital account crisis; crisis prevention; private capital; capital outflow; net capital flows; current account deficit; capital markets; government bonds; current account deficits; capital inflows; market assets; loss of confidence; balance of payments; swift; net capital; current account reversals; official flows; current account adjustment; capital flow;

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    References

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    1. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1999. "The twin crises: The causes of banking and balance of payments problems," MPRA Paper 14081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Michael M. Hutchison & Ilan Noy, . "Sudden Stops and the Mexican Wave: Currency Crises, Capital Flow Reversals and Output Loss in Emerging Markets," EPRU Working Paper Series 02-12, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    3. Sebastian Edwards, 2005. "Capital Controls, Sudden Stops and Current Account Reversals," NBER Working Papers 11170, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Barry Eichengreen & Poonam Gupta & Ashoka Mody, 2008. "Sudden Stops and IMF-Supported Programs," NBER Chapters, in: Financial Markets Volatility and Performance in Emerging Markets, pages 219-266 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Barry J. Eichengreen & Inci Ötker & A. Javier Hamann & Esteban Jadresic & R. B. Johnston & Hugh Bredenkamp & Paul R. Masson, 1998. "Exit Strategies," IMF Occasional Papers 168, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Alejandro Izquierdo & Ernesto Talvi & Guillermo A Calvo, 2006. "Phoenix miracles in emerging markets: recovering without credit from systemic financial crises," BIS Working Papers 221, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Luis Fernando Mejía, 2004. "On the Empirics of Sudden Stops: The Relevance of Balance-Sheet Effects," IDB Publications 6516, Inter-American Development Bank.
    8. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Detragiache, Enrica, 2005. "Cross-country empirical studies of systemic bank distress : a survey," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3719, The World Bank.
    9. Frankel, Jeffrey & Cavallo, Eduardo, 2004. "Does Openness to Trade Make Countries More Vulnerable to Sudden Stops, or Less? Using Gravity to Establish Causality," Working Paper Series rwp04-038, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    10. Guillermo A. Calvo, 2008. "Crises in Emerging Markets Economies: A Global Perspective," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Kevin Cowan & Sebastián Edwards & Rodrigo O. Valdés & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmid (ed.), Current Account and External Financing, edition 1, volume 12, chapter 3, pages 085-115 Central Bank of Chile.
    11. Graciela L. Kaminsky, 2003. "Varieties of Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 10193, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Marcos Chamon & Paolo Manasse & Alessandro Prati, 2007. "Can We Predict the Next Capital Account Crisis?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 54(2), pages 270-305, June.
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