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Financial Stress, Downturns, and Recoveries

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Author Info
Selim Elekdag
Roberto Cardarelli
Subir Lall

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Abstract

This paper examines why some financial stress episodes lead to economic downturns. The paper identifies episodes of financial turmoil using a financial stress index (FSI), and proposes an analytical framework to assess the impact of financial stress-in particular banking distress-on the real economy. It concludes that financial turmoil characterized by banking distress is more likely to be associated with severe and protracted downturns than stress mainly in securities or foreign exchange markets. Economies with more arms-length financial systems appear to be particularly vulnerable to sharp contractions, due to the greater procyclicality of leverage in their banking systems.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 09/100.

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Length: 58 pages
Date of creation: 13 May 2009
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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:09/100

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Related research
Keywords: Financial crisis ; Financial systems ; Banking sector ; Exchange markets ; Securities markets ; Banking crisis ; Economic recession ; Economic recovery ; Business cycles ; Cross country analysis ;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Luisa Carpinelli, 2009. "Real effects of banking crises: a survey of the literature," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 55, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  2. Selim Elekdag & Prakash Kannan, 2009. "Incorporating Market Information into the Construction of the Fan Chart," IMF Working Papers 09/178, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  3. Yu-Fu Chen & Michael Funke, 2009. "Booms, Recessions and Financial Turmoil: A Fresh Look at Investment Decisions under Cyclical Uncertainty," Discussion Papers 225, University of Dundee, Economic Studies. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Irina Tytell & Selim Elekdag & Ravi Balakrishnan & Stephan Danninger, 2009. "The Transmission of Financial Stress from Advanced to Emerging Economies," IMF Working Papers 09/133, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-20.

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