A Simple Stochastic Approach to Debt Sustainability Applied to Lebanon
AbstractThis paper applies a simple probabilistic approach to debt sustainability analysis to the case of Lebanon. The paper derives "fan charts" to depict the probability distribution of the government debt to GDP ratio under a medium-term adjustment scenario, as a result of shocks to GDP growth and interest rates. The distribution of shocks is derived from the past shocks to these variables and the related variance covariance. Because we are interested in assessing the sustainability of a particular policy scenario, we do not consider independent fiscal policy shocks or the endogenous policy response to shocks.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 08/97.
Date of creation: 01 Apr 2008
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA
Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
More information through EDIRC
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2008-06-21 (All new papers)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Manasse, Paolo & Roubini, Nouriel, 2009.
""Rules of thumb" for sovereign debt crises,"
Journal of International Economics, Elsevier,
Elsevier, vol. 78(2), pages 192-205, July.
- Nigel Andrew Chalk & Richard Hemming, 2000. "Assessing Fiscal Sustainability in Theory and Practice," IMF Working Papers 00/81, International Monetary Fund.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Miguel A. Savastano, 2003.
NBER Working Papers
9908, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Oya Celasun & Xavier Debrun & Jonathan David Ostry, 2006. "Primary Surplus Behavior and Risks to Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries," IMF Working Papers 06/67, International Monetary Fund.
- Marcio Garcia & Roberto Rigobon, 2004.
"A Risk Management Approach to Emerging Market's Sovereign Debt Sustainability with an Application to Brazilian Data,"
NBER Working Papers
10336, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Márcio Gomes Pinto Garcia & Roberto Rigobon, 2004. "A Risk Management Approach to Emerging Market’s Sovereign Debt Sustainability with an Application to Brazilian Data," Textos para discussÃ£o, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil) 484, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
- Philippe D Karam & Doug Hostland, 2005.
"Assessing Debt Sustainability in Emerging Market Economies Using Stochastic Simulation Methods,"
IMF Working Papers
05/226, International Monetary Fund.
- Hostland, Doug & Karam, Philippe, 2006. "Assessing debt sustainability in emerging market economies using stochastic simulation methods," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3821, The World Bank.
- Tushar Poddar & Mangal Goswami & Juan Sole & Victor EchÃ©varria Icaza, 2006. "Interest Rate Determination in Lebanon," IMF Working Papers 06/94, International Monetary Fund.
- Mendoza, Enrique G. & Oviedo, P. Marcelo, 2006.
"Public Debt, Fiscal Solvency, and Macroeconomic Uncertainty in Latin America: The Cases of Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, and Mexico,"
Staff General Research Papers, Iowa State University, Department of Economics
12700, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Enrique G. Mendoza & P. Marcelo Oviedo, 2009. "Public Debt, Fiscal Solvency and Macroeconomic Uncertainty in Latin America The Cases of Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica and Mexico," Economia Mexicana NUEVA EPOCA, , vol. 0(2), pages 133-173, July-Dece.
- Enrique G. Mendoza & P. Marcelo Oviedo, 2004. "Public Debt, Fiscal Solvency and Macroeconomic Uncertainty in Latin America: The Cases of Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, and Mexico," NBER Working Papers 10637, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- David Cronin & Kevin Dowd, 2013.
"Fiscal Fan Charts: A Tool for Assessing Member States' (Likely?) Compliance with EU Fiscal Rules,"
Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies,
Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 34, pages 517-534, December.
- Cronin, David & Dowd, Kevin, 2011. "Fiscal fan charts - A tool for assessing member states’ (likely?) compliance with EU fiscal rules," Research Technical Papers 15/RT/11, Central Bank of Ireland.
- Jafri, Sabina Khurram, 2009. "External Debt Sustainability Analysis for the Medium Term: A Case Study," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio di Genova, vol. 62(3), pages 363-382.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow) or (Hassan Zaidi).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.