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The Anatomy of Banking Crises

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Author Info

  • Rupa Duttagupta
  • Paul Cashin

Abstract

This paper uses a Binary Classification Tree (BCT) model to analyze banking crises in 50 emerging market and developing countries during 1990-2005. The BCT identifies key indicators and their threshold values at which vulnerability to banking crisis increases. The three conditions identified as crisis-prone-(i) very high inflation, (ii) highly dollarized bank deposits combined with nominal depreciation or low liquidity, and (iii) low bank profitability-highlight that foreign currency risk, poor financial soundness, and macroeconomic instability are key vulnerabilities triggering banking crises. The main results survive under alternative robustness checks, confirming the importance of the BCT approach for monitoring banking system vulnerabilities.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 08/93.

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Length: 37
Date of creation: 01 Apr 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:08/93

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Related research

Keywords: Dollarization; Banking crisis; Exchange rates; Liquidity; Exchange rate instability; Economic models;

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

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  1. Marcos Chamon & Paolo Manasse & Alessandro Prati, 2007. "Can We Predict the Next Capital Account Crisis?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 54(2), pages 270-305, June.
  2. Paola Bongini & Stijn Claessens & Giovanni Ferri, 2001. "The Political Economy of Distress in East Asian Financial Institutions," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 5-25, February.
  3. Michael Gavin & Ricardo Hausmann, 1996. "The Roots of Banking Crises: The Macroeconomic Context," Research Department Publications 4026, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  4. Eichengreen, Barry & Arteta, Carlos, 2000. "Banking Crises in Emerging Markets: Presumptions and Evidence," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series qt3pk9t1h2, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  5. Paolo Manasse & Nouriel Roubini, 2005. "'Rules of Thumb' for Sovereign Debt Crises," International Finance 0509003, EconWPA.
  6. Graciela Laura Kaminsky, 1999. "Currency and Banking Crises - The Early Warnings of Distress," IMF Working Papers 99/178, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. repec:fth:inadeb:318 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. De Nicolo, Gianni & Honohan, Patrick & Ize, Alain, 2003. "Dollarization of the banking system : good or bad?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3116, The World Bank.
  10. Patrick Honohan, 1997. "Banking system failures in developing and transition countries: Diagnosis and predictions," BIS Working Papers 39, Bank for International Settlements.
  11. Carlos O. Arteta, 2003. "Are financially dollarized countries more prone to costly crises?," International Finance Discussion Papers 763, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  12. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 1998. "The Determinants of Banking Crises in Developing and Developed Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 81-109, March.
  13. Brenda González-Hermosillo, 1999. "Determinants of Ex-Ante Banking System Distress: A Macro-Micro Empirical Exploration of Some Recent Episodes," IMF Working Papers 99/33, International Monetary Fund.
  14. John Boyd & Bruce Champ, 2003. "Inflation and financial market performance: what have we learned in the last ten years," Working Paper 0317, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Rousseau, Peter L. & Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2009. "Inflation, financial development, and growth: A trilateral analysis," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 310-324, December.
  2. Dan OLTEANU, 2011. "A Survey On The Drivers And Mechanisms Of Financial Crises," Romanian Journal of Economics, Institute of National Economy, vol. 33(2(bis)(42), pages 73-100, December.
  3. Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der Gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung & Conseil d'‘Analyse � (ed.), 2010. "Evaluer la performance économique, le bien-être et la soutenabilité. Rapport du Conseil d’analyse économique et du Conseil allemand des experts en économie," Occasional Reports / Expertisen, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, number 75369.
  4. Peter L. Rousseau & Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2009. "Inflation, Finance, and Growth: A Trilateral Analysis," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 0916, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
  5. Zhongbo Jing & Jakob de Haan & Jan Jacobs & Haizhen Yang, 2013. "Identifying Banking Crises Using Money Market Pressure: New Evidence For a Large Set of Countries," DNB Working Papers 397, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  6. Rupa Duttagupta & Montfort Mlachila, 2008. "What is Really Good for Long-Term Growth? Lessons from a Binary ClassificationTree (BCT) Approach," IMF Working Papers 08/263, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Roy Zilberman, 2013. "Loan Loss Provisioning Rules, Procyclicality, and Financial Volatility," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 184, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
  8. Ray Barrell & Davis, E. & Liadze, I. & Dilruba Karim, 2009. "Bank Regulation, Property Prices And Early Warning Systems For Banking Crises In Oecd Countries," NIESR Discussion Papers 330, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
  9. Casu, Barbara & Clare, Andrew & Saleh, Nashwa, 2011. "Towards a new model for early warning signals for systemic financial fragility and near crises: an application to OECD countries," MPRA Paper 37043, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Radu Muntean, 2009. "Early Warning Models for Banking Supervision in Romania," Advances in Economic and Financial Research - DOFIN Working Paper Series 39, Bucharest University of Economics, Center for Advanced Research in Finance and Banking - CARFIB.
  11. Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der Gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung & Conseil d'‘Analyse � (ed.), 2010. "Monitoring economic performance, quality of life and sustainability. Joint report as requested by the Franco-German Ministerial Council," Occasional Reports / Expertisen, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, number 75366.
  12. repec:onb:oenbwp:y:2008:i:16:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
  13. Karim, Dilruba & Liadze, Iana & Barrell, Ray & Davis, E. Philip, 2013. "Off-balance sheet exposures and banking crises in OECD countries," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 673-681.

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