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The Anatomy of Banking Crises

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Author Info
Paul Cashin
Rupa Duttagupta

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Abstract

This paper uses a Binary Classification Tree (BCT) model to analyze banking crises in 50 emerging market and developing countries during 1990-2005. The BCT identifies key indicators and their threshold values at which vulnerability to banking crisis increases. The three conditions identified as crisis-prone-(i) very high inflation, (ii) highly dollarized bank deposits combined with nominal depreciation or low liquidity, and (iii) low bank profitability-highlight that foreign currency risk, poor financial soundness, and macroeconomic instability are key vulnerabilities triggering banking crises. The main results survive under alternative robustness checks, confirming the importance of the BCT approach for monitoring banking system vulnerabilities.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 08/93.

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Length: 37 pages
Date of creation: 22 Apr 2008
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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:08/93

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Graciela Laura Kaminsky, 1999. "Currency and Banking Crises - The Early Warnings of Distress," IMF Working Papers 99/178, International Monetary Fund.
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  2. Alejandro Gaytán & Christian A. Johnson, 2002. "A Review of the Literature on Early Warning Systems for Banking Crises," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 183, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  3. Michael Gavin & Ricardo Hausmann, 1996. "The Roots of Banking Crises: The Macroeconomic Context," RES Working Papers 4026, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  4. John Boyd & Bruce Champ, 2003. "Inflation and financial market performance: what have we learned in the last ten years," Working Paper 0317, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
  5. Paolo Manasse & Nouriel Roubini, 2005. "'Rules of Thumb' for Sovereign Debt Crises," International Finance 0509003, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Barry Eichengreen & Carlos Arteta, 2000. "Banking Crises in Emerging Markets: Presumptions and Evidence," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series 1007, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Gianni De Nicoló & Alain Ize & Patrick Honohan, 2003. "Dollarization of the Banking System: Good or Bad?," IMF Working Papers 03/146, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Patrick Honohan, 1997. "Banking system failures in developing and transition countries: Diagnosis and predictions," BIS Working Papers 39, Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
  9. repec:fth:inadeb:318 is not listed on IDEAS
  10. Brenda González-Hermosillo, 1999. "Determinants of Ex-Ante Banking System Distress: A Macro-Micro Empirical Exploration of Some Recent Episodes," IMF Working Papers 99/33, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Carlos O. Arteta, 2003. "Are financially dollarized countries more prone to costly crises?," International Finance Discussion Papers 763, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  12. repec:pal:imfstp:v:54:y:2007:i:2:p:270-305 is not listed on IDEAS
  13. Bongini, Paola & Claessens, Stijn & Ferri, Giovanni, 2000. "The political economy of distress in East Asian financial institutions," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2265, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Montfort Mlachila & Rupa Duttagupta, 2008. "What is Really Good for Long-Term Growth? Lessons from a Binary ClassificationTree (BCT) Approach," IMF Working Papers 08/263, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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