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The Anatomy of Banking Crises

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  • Rupa Duttagupta
  • Paul Cashin

Abstract

This paper uses a Binary Classification Tree (BCT) model to analyze banking crises in 50 emerging market and developing countries during 1990-2005. The BCT identifies key indicators and their threshold values at which vulnerability to banking crisis increases. The three conditions identified as crisis-prone-(i) very high inflation, (ii) highly dollarized bank deposits combined with nominal depreciation or low liquidity, and (iii) low bank profitability-highlight that foreign currency risk, poor financial soundness, and macroeconomic instability are key vulnerabilities triggering banking crises. The main results survive under alternative robustness checks, confirming the importance of the BCT approach for monitoring banking system vulnerabilities.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 08/93.

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Length: 37
Date of creation: 01 Apr 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:08/93

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Keywords: Dollarization; Banking crisis; Exchange rates; Liquidity; Exchange rate instability; Economic models; banking crises; banking; banking system; deposit insurance; bank liquidity; bank profitability; banking sector; foreign exchange; crisis episodes; crisis probability; currency crises; currency crisis; banking sector problems; systemic banking crisis; low liquidity; bank runs; sovereign debt crisis; recessions; prudential regulation; banking system distress; debt crisis; bank crises; return on assets; crisis episode; capital adequacy; financial liberalization; financial crises; eastern caribbean central bank; bank policy; contagion; bank supervision; banking system failures; bank vulnerability; financial crisis; banking systems; bank distress; liquidity crisis; bank research; bank weakness; borderline financial crises; bank problems; early warning systems; bank independence; bank deposits; capital account crisis; nationalization of banks; bank vulnerabilities; recession; financial indicators; prudential regulation and supervision; financial sector health; rating agencies; bank problem; currency depreciation; bank for international settlements;

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References

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  1. Michael Gavin & Ricardo Hausmann, 1996. "The Roots of Banking Crises: The Macroeconomic Context," IDB Publications 5819, Inter-American Development Bank.
  2. De Nicolo, Gianni & Honohan, Patrick & Ize, Alain, 2003. "Dollarization of the banking system : good or bad?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3116, The World Bank.
  3. Carlos O. Arteta, 2003. "Are financially dollarized countries more prone to costly crises?," International Finance Discussion Papers 763, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  4. Barry Eichengreen & Carlos Arteta, 2001. "Banking Crises in Emerging Markets: Presumptions and Evidence," Macroeconomics 0012012, EconWPA.
  5. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "Staying Afloat When the Wind Shifts: External Factors and Emerging-Market Banking Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 1828, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. Patrick Honohan, 1997. "Banking system failures in developing and transition countries: Diagnosis and predictions," BIS Working Papers 39, Bank for International Settlements.
  8. Brenda González-Hermosillo, 1999. "Determinants of Ex-Ante Banking System Distress," IMF Working Papers 99/33, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Graciela Laura Kaminsky, 1999. "Currency and Banking Crises," IMF Working Papers 99/178, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Nouriel Roubini & Paolo Manasse, 2005. "Rules of Thumb for Sovereign Debt Crises," IMF Working Papers 05/42, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Paola Bongini & Stijn Claessens & Giovanni Ferri, 2001. "The Political Economy of Distress in East Asian Financial Institutions," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 5-25, February.
  12. Swart R. Ghosh & Atish R. Ghosh, 2002. "Structural Vulnerability and Currency Crises," IMF Working Papers 02/9, International Monetary Fund.
  13. John Boyd & Bruce Champ, 2003. "Inflation and financial market performance: what have we learned in the last ten years," Working Paper 0317, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  14. Gianni De Nicoló & Patrick Honohan & Alain Ize, 2003. "Dollarization of the Banking System," IMF Working Papers 03/146, International Monetary Fund.
  15. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 1998. "The Determinants of Banking Crises in Developing and Developed Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 81-109, March.
  16. Marcos Chamon & Paolo Manasse & Alessandro Prati, 2007. "Can We Predict the Next Capital Account Crisis?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 54(2), pages 270-305, June.
  17. repec:fth:inadeb:318 is not listed on IDEAS
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Zhongbo Jing & Jakob de Haan & Jan P. A. M. Jacobs & Haizhen Yang, 2013. "Identifying Banking Crises Using Money Market Pressure: New Evidence For A Large Set of Countries," CIRANO Working Papers 2013s-41, CIRANO.
  2. Rousseau, Peter L. & Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2009. "Inflation, financial development, and growth: A trilateral analysis," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 310-324, December.
  3. Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der Gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung & Conseil d'‘Analyse � (ed.), 2010. "Evaluer la performance économique, le bien-être et la soutenabilité. Rapport du Conseil d’analyse économique et du Conseil allemand des experts en économie," Occasional Reports / Expertisen, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, number 75369.
  4. Radu Muntean, 2009. "Early Warning Models for Banking Supervision in Romania," Advances in Economic and Financial Research - DOFIN Working Paper Series 39, Bucharest University of Economics, Center for Advanced Research in Finance and Banking - CARFIB.
  5. Barrell, Ray & Davis, E. Philip & Karim, Dilruba & Liadze, Iana, 2010. "Bank regulation, property prices and early warning systems for banking crises in OECD countries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 2255-2264, September.
  6. Casu, Barbara & Clare, Andrew & Saleh, Nashwa, 2011. "Towards a new model for early warning signals for systemic financial fragility and near crises: an application to OECD countries," MPRA Paper 37043, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Dan OLTEANU, 2011. "A Survey On The Drivers And Mechanisms Of Financial Crises," Romanian Journal of Economics, Institute of National Economy, vol. 33(2(bis)(42), pages 73-100, December.
  8. Rupa Duttagupta & Montfort Mlachila, 2008. "What is Really Good for Long-Term Growth? Lessons from a Binary ClassificationTree (BCT) Approach," IMF Working Papers 08/263, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Karim, Dilruba & Liadze, Iana & Barrell, Ray & Davis, E. Philip, 2013. "Off-balance sheet exposures and banking crises in OECD countries," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 673-681.
  10. Peter L. Rousseau & Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2009. "Inflation, Finance, and Growth: A Trilateral Analysis," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 0916, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
  11. repec:onb:oenbwp:y:2008:i:16:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
  12. Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der Gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung & Conseil d'‘Analyse � (ed.), 2010. "Monitoring economic performance, quality of life and sustainability. Joint report as requested by the Franco-German Ministerial Council," Occasional Reports / Expertisen, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, number 75366.

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