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Current Account Developments in New Member States of the European Union: Equilibrium, Excess, and EU-Phoria

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  • Jesmin Rahman

Abstract

This paper analyzes current account (CA) developments in the following 10 new EU members states: Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia. During the last 15 years, these countries, on average, have run CA deficits that are considerably higher than the average CA deficit of other developing countries. However, more recently, a diverging pattern has emerged among these countries with one group, consisting of the Baltic countries, Bulgaria and Romania, experiencing rapid widening, while the others seeing a stabilization in their CA balances. Using panel data for 59 countries, this paper empirically investigates the following three questions: Are higher average deficits in EU-10 explained by medium-term macroeconomic fundamentals? What explains the diverging CA behavior among EU-10? And finally, how challenging is it for the group experiencing rapidly widening CA deficits to reverse the trend?

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 08/92.

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Length: 34
Date of creation: 01 Apr 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:08/92

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Keywords: European Union;

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References

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  1. Francesco Caselli & Silvana Tenreyro, 2006. "Is Poland the Next Spain?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2004, pages 459-533 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Chinn, Menzie D. & Prasad, Eswar S., 2003. "Medium-term determinants of current accounts in industrial and developing countries: an empirical exploration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 47-76, January.
  3. Joshua Aizenman & Yi Sun, 2008. "Globalization and the Sustainability of Large Current Account Imbalances: Size Matters," NBER Working Papers 13734, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Gian Maria Milesi-Ferrett & Assaf Razin, 1996. "Sustainability of Persistent Current Account Deficits," NBER Working Papers 5467, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Herrmann, Sabine & Jochem, Axel, 2005. "Trade balances of the central and east European EU member states and the role of foreign direct investment," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,41, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  6. Beck, Thorsten & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Levine, Ross, 1999. "A new database on financial development and structure," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2146, The World Bank.
  7. Aasim M. Husain & Ashoka Mody & Nienke Oomes & Robin Brooks & Kenneth Rogoff, 2003. "Evolution and Performance of Exchange Rate Regimes," IMF Working Papers 03/243, International Monetary Fund.
  8. G. Russell Kincaid & Martin Fetherston & Peter Isard & Hamid Faruqee, 2001. "Methodology for Current Account and Exchange Rate Assessments," IMF Occasional Papers 209, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Daniel Leigh & Abdul Abiad & Ashoka Mody, 2007. "International Finance and Income Convergence: Europe is Different," IMF Working Papers 07/64, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Francesco Caselli & Silvana Tenreyro, 2005. "Is Poland the next Spain?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 3564, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  11. Philip Schellekens & Rudolfs Bems, 2007. "Finance and Convergence: What's Ahead for Emerging Europe?," IMF Working Papers 07/244, International Monetary Fund.
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