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High and Volatile Treasury Yields in Tanzania

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Author Info

  • Yuri Vladimirovich Sobolev
  • S. M. Ali Abbas

Abstract

The observed increase in the level and volatility of Tanzania''s Treasury yields in recent years against an otherwise benign macroeconomic backdrop presented a puzzle for policymakers, while raising concerns about the fiscal burden of rising debt interest payments and diversion of bank credit away from the private sector. Using evidence from bid-level data and supported by theoretical models, this paper argues that oligopolistic bidding through 2005 may have been partly responsible for the rising level of yields; while the high volatility during 2006-07 could be traced to the emergence of a sharp segmentation of the T-bill market between sophisticated financial market players (foreign-controlled banks) and a lessexperienced group of investors (domestic pension funds and small banks). An important policy recommendation that emerges is that public debt managers should avoid micromanaging Treasury bill auctions by issuing amounts in excess of those offered or by dipping into oversubscribed segments of the yield curve, as such practices seriously disadvantage the less-sophisticated (but more competitive) investors vis-Ã -vis the more sophisticated players.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 08/81.

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Length: 29
Date of creation: 01 Mar 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:08/81

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Related research

Keywords: Bonds; Bond issues; Debt burden; Bank credit; investors; t-bonds; deposit rates; financial market; government bond; government bond markets; bond markets; financial markets; deposit rate; interest payments; portfolio investment; financial systems; private pension; treasury bond auctions; bond; recapitalization; t-bond; recapitalization bonds; commercial banks; risk premium; financial sector; term bonds; foreign investors; interest costs; financial institutions; developing government bond markets; real interest rates; interest income; bond auctions; equity capital; institutional investors; developing government bond; ownership structure; fixed costs; financial market development; bond yields; bond maturities; money markets; rate of return; corporate bond; financial system; nominal interest rates; money market;

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  1. Leonardo Bartolini & Carlo Cottarelli, 1997. "Designing effective auctions for treasury securities," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 3(Jul).
  2. David Hauner, 2006. "Fiscal Policy and Financial Development," IMF Working Papers 06/26, International Monetary Fund.
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Cited by:
  1. Riham Shendy & Zachary Kaplan & Peter Mousley, 2011. "Toward Better Infrastructure : Conditions, Constraints, and Opportunities in Financing Public-Private Partnerships in Select African Countries," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 2331, October.

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